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After “rocking around” National Hurricane Center Late on Thursday, Ida resumed a more stable course to the northwest on Friday, actually driven by a ridge of high-pressure air from the southeastern United States.
Forecasters said the ridge is expected to move westward, which should keep the storm on that general course over the weekend, churning across the Gulf of Mexico and likely landing in Louisiana late Sunday.
Ida had maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph at noon on Friday and a hurricane was expected with winds of over 73 mph as it approached western Cuba.
The crucial question for Gulf Coast residents and emergency officials is how strong it will become in the days after it crosses Cuba and before it makes landfall.
The hurricane center said the storm should strengthen steadily by Saturday, but could get stronger very quickly after that. Ida can become a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph, defined as Category 3 or higher, within 24 hours of making landfall.
research over the past decade found that on average, such rapid intensification of hurricanes is increasing, in part because the oceans that provide energy for hurricanes are warming as a result of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions.
The hurricane center defines rapid intensification as a rise in sustained winds of at least 35 mph for 24 hours. During the highly active 2020 season, Hurricane Laura intensified at 45 mph in 24 hours before landing in Louisiana as a Category 4 storm in late August.
The Gulf of Mexico is very hot right now, normally near the end of summer, so there is more energy to feed Ida. Wind shear or changes in wind speed and direction affecting Ida’s cyclonic nature were also expected to dissipate. The storm should then become more organized, which will allow it to strengthen faster.
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