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Researchers led by Harrison Agrusa of the University of Maryland modeled how much DART could alter Dimorfos’ spin, or spin, by calculating how the momentum of the impact would change the asteroid’s roll, tilt, and yaw. The results can be dramatic. “It can start spilling out and get into a chaotic state,” Agrusa says. “It was a really big surprise.”
Unexpected spinning poses some interesting challenges. It will increase the difficulty of landing on the asteroid, which ESA hopes to try with two small spacecraft on the Hera mission. It could also complicate future attempts to deflect an Earth-bound asteroid, as any spin could affect an asteroid’s path through space.
When DART hits Dimorphos, the energy of the impact will be comparable to three tons of TNT exploding, sending thousands of pieces of debris. spit into space. Statler describes it as a golf cart traveling at 15,000 miles per hour crashing into the side of a football stadium. The strength of the impact won’t make any sudden changes to Dimorphos’ spin, but things will start to change in a matter of days, according to Agrusa and his team.
Soon, Dimorphos will begin to shake very lightly. This wobble will get bigger and bigger as the momentum of the impact throws Dimorphos’ spin out of balance, and there will be no friction in the vacuum of space to slow him down. Dimorphos might start spinning somehow. It can begin to rotate along its long axis, like a rotary doner. According to an observer looking skyward at Didymos, this calming-looking satellite will take on a new form – it will begin to sway wildly back and forth, its previously hidden sides now visible.
In a matter of weeks, Dimorphos can spin so much that it enters a chaotic state of tumbling around its axis, spinning uncontrollably. In more extreme scenarios, the tidal lock with Didymos could break completely and Dimorphos could begin to spin “upside down,” Agrusa says.
What exactly happens will depend on a few things. The shape of the dimorphos will play an important role – if it is taller rather than spherical, it will rotate in a more chaotic manner. Radar observations suggest it’s getting long so far, but we won’t know until a few hours before DART’s impact, when it gets first views of its small target.
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