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After a scorching summer in much of the country, warmer-than-normal conditions are expected to continue into the fall, contributing to severe drought across the West, scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said on Thursday.
Five states experienced the hottest June-August months of record-keeping in 127 years. It’s no coincidence that two of these states – California and Oregon – have experienced some of the biggest fires in their history, as the high temperatures contributed to the extra dry soils and vegetation that helped the fires spread quickly.
Scott Handel, a meteorologist with NOAA’s Center for Climate Prediction, said at a news conference that October forecasts call for above-normal temperatures for much of the country, and only the Pacific Northwest and Gulf States will have near-average temperatures.
If this continues, the withering drought will likely expand eastward, stretching from the West Coast to the Southwest, the Rockies, the Northern Plains, and Central Minnesota. Eastern New Mexico and eastern Colorado and nearly all of Texas, Oklahoma and Nebraska will begin to experience drought conditions.
The drought had devastating effects in the West. Water allocations in California’s Central Valley have been cut sharply some farmers have their fields fallow or otherwise reduce production. Federal Bureau of Corrections declared water scarcity for the first time On the Colorado River. And little fodder for his cattle, Farmers in the Northern Plains They had to sell some of their flocks.
But the forecast contains more good news for the Pacific Northwest. NOAA scientists said that above-average rainfall expected in that area should reduce drought conditions there. Much of the East Coast and Upper Midwest is also expected to be wetter than normal.
La Niña is likely to develop towards the end of the year as sea surface temperatures drop below normal in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
The drop in ocean temperatures leads to changes in the atmospheric circulation that can affect the weather elsewhere. In the United States, La Niña means warmer and drier conditions in Southern California, the Southwest and Southeast, and cooler and wetter conditions in much of the northern part of the country, although not always.
The NOAA seasonal forecast for October through December, released Thursday, reflects this potential impact. Much of the lower two-thirds of the country is forecast to be warmer than average during these three months. Wet conditions are expected to continue in the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Upper Midwest, northern New York State and northern New England.
Much of the lower third of the country is expected to remain drier-than-normal by the end of the year, which coupled with warm conditions suggests the drought isn’t going to end anytime soon.
Average temperatures for the Lower 48 states over three months Connected from June to August 1936 — during the Dust Bowl — the highest on record, according to Karin Gleason, a climatologist with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.
Because of natural climate variability, “next year or the next, you may not see a summer like this year,” Ms Gleason said.
But in a warming world, he added, “in general you would expect to see warmer extremes occur more frequently.”
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