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public health officials Denmark and Norway On Monday, Omicron released dire predictions for the next wave of the coronavirus variant, predicting it would dominate both countries in a matter of days. While scientists don’t yet know how often the variant causes serious illness, they say the rapid spread will lead to an explosion in cases, potentially increasing the pressure on hospitals even if it proves mild.

Reports follow similarly alarming findings from england published over the weekend, but researchers cautioned that the trend may vary by variant. gets a clearer view. It is not yet certain how often Omicron infections will send people to the hospital or how many hospitalized patients will die. While Omicron may partially evade immune defenses, researchers have yet to determine how well vaccines and previous infections will protect people against serious illness.

The authors of both new reports also observed that quick actions such as support campaigns and reducing opportunities for Omicron to spread can reduce the variant’s impact.

American researchers have yet to publish models of Omicron’s rise in the United States. However, experts point out that the country is similar to Norway and Denmark in terms of some Covid risk factors, such as vaccine levels and the average age of the population.

“It would be naive to think that the United States would be different from Denmark,” said microbiologist Mads Albertsen of Aalborg University. “Denmark is probably the best case scenario.”

In recent weeks, many epidemiologists have been paying close attention to Denmark, a country of 5.8 million people, about the population of Wisconsin.

Early in the epidemic, the country established an advanced surveillance system that combined large-scale coronavirus testing with genetic sequencing of many samples. This strategy has allowed Denmark to detect emerging variants, even at low levels, and adjust public health policies to prepare for new fluctuations.

The first Omicron sample from Denmark was sequenced on 3 December. The sample was collected on November 23. South Africa told the world for the first time About an increase in cases there.

Because it can take days to sequence genetic material from coronavirus samples, Danish researchers have developed a rapid genetic test that picks up a few key mutations found only in Omicron. Every positive test result in Denmark is now screened for the new variant, giving an extraordinarily comprehensive picture of the spread of Omicron.

In the report published Monday by the Statens Serum Institute in Copenhagen, researchers estimate that cases of Omicron in Denmark are doubling every two days. According to the report, Omicron is spreading much faster than Delta, which means the new variant will become dominant by mid-week.

Three-quarters of Omicron cases are in people who have received two doses of the vaccine, which is roughly the same portion of the entire country that is fully vaccinated. This high percentage indicates that vaccines offer little protection against infection, but most scientists still believe vaccines will fend off serious illness and death.

Danish data are consistent with a smaller report. Omicron infections in the United States. 34 out of 43 documented cases – or about 79 percent were fully vaccinated.

“This thing can spread, and it can spread whether you’ve been vaccinated or not,” said biostatistician Christina Ramirez of the University of California, Los Angeles.

In the UK, researchers also found that full vaccination provides low protection against a new infection. However, they found that the reinforcement shots took the defense to much higher levels.

In these European countries, Omicron will not just replace Delta: It will increase cases. Currently, Denmark sees about 6,000 cases a day – already a record for the country and is driven almost entirely by Delta. Danish researchers predict that Omicron will increase daily cases to 10,000 by the end of the week, and the numbers will continue to climb from there.

The model predicts that even if the Omicron variant turns out to be milder than previous variants, the explosive growth could send large numbers of people to the hospital. Danish researchers also warned that Omicron outbreaks in hospitals, albeit mild, could lead to dangerous reductions in staff numbers as doctors and nurses are sent home to quarantine.

The authors of the new report warned that their model is preliminary. For example, it didn’t take into account the strong protection that boosters could afford. Currently, 21 percent of people in Denmark have received a support pin, and the country is running an aggressive support campaign.

Even so, Troels Lillebaek, director of the Statens Serum Institute, said the next few weeks will be a huge challenge for the country’s hospitals.

“Regardless of uncertainty about the precise severity and contagiousness of Omicron, the risk of increasing numbers of admissions is very high,” he said.

In Norway, researchers have also observed a rapid rise of Omicron in recent days. Norwegian Institute of Public Health, “Omicron variant is being established in Norway and will soon prevail” aforementioned in a statement on Monday.

In a preliminary scenario, the institute estimated that there would be 90,000 to 300,000 cases per day in about three weeks – a drastic increase from the current rate of around 4,700 cases per day, a record for Norway.

The Norwegian researchers also said that even if the Omicron is milder, it could lead to far more hospital admissions. They estimate that Norwegian hospitals will receive between 50 and 200 admissions each day, unless rapid action significantly slows the epidemic. Currently, Norway admits about 30 patients every day, which is enough to strain the country’s hospitals.

“There is an urgent need to curb the Covid-19 outbreak with significant measures so that the Omicron variant does not cause a wave of epidemics that create an enormous disease burden and completely overload healthcare,” the Norwegian Institute of Public Health said. warned.

Denmark last week public health restrictionsincluding forcing restaurants and bars to close at midnight, and switching some schools to virtual education before the winter holidays. It also accelerates the support campaign. People aged 40 or older and who have been at least four and a half months since their second vaccination are now eligible for a third dose, the Danish Health Authority says. said on Monday.

The Norwegian government has also stepped up its support delivery and announced other new measures on Monday, although it stalled shortly before a complete lockdown. The new measures include mask requirement indoors, a ban on alcohol service, restrictions on social gatherings and social distancing requirements at organized events.

Planning to launch the Omicron models this week, University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation director Dr. Christopher Murray said that Omicron will likely also spread rapidly in the population in the United States.

“I’m hoping we’ll see Omicron in the US really become the dominant species by the end of the month or January,” he said.

But not much is known about the severity of the variant, so it’s hard to predict how its spread will affect hospitalizations.

Dr. “There’s a wide variety of possible outcomes here,” Murray said.

One of the key measures is whether cases and hospitalizations will increase in the coming weeks; “If hospitalizations increase much more slowly than cases, that would be a good sign,” he said.

But experts have warned that even if Omicron turns out to be relatively mild, its rapid spread could place a heavy burden on hospitals.

“Imagine that it spread so quickly and produced an epidemic that peaked with twice as many people infected, but it was only half as likely to hospitalize someone,” said Jeffrey Shaman, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Columbia University. “Well, it’s a wash. That means you’re going to see the same kind of love we saw last winter.”

Joshua Salomon, an infectious disease specialist and modeler at Stanford University, said the rise in Delta cases has already hit some hospitals, and Omicron’s arrival coincided with flu season.

“As there may be an increase in flu cases, an Omicron wave on top of a Delta wave is a very worrying combination,” he said.

Henrik Pryser Libell Contributing reports from Oslo and Jasmina Nielsen from Copenhagen.