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The deadly consequences of climate change have become even clearer this record-breaking year. heat wave, floodand forest fires killed thousands and pushed the boundaries of our disaster responders.

Scientists in the closing days of 2021 warned The eastern bulge of a Florida-sized glacier is about to break off from Antarctica, and US legislators they used their best luck within a decade to enact comprehensive climate policies.

But among these stark signs were also signs that momentum was starting to build up behind climate action. Indeed, there is good reason to believe that the world can at least avoid the worst dangers of global warming.

Princeton energy researcher Jesse Jenkins has accurately and colorfully captured the awkward moment we are in. a new tweet: “We’re not all f$%@ed anymore. But we’re also far from being completely unf$@%*ed!”

To be sure, limited progress isn’t nearly enough. We’ve taken a long time to start making real changes. World events and politics can still slow or reverse trends. And we cannot allow little progress in the face of an intergenerational challenge to ease the pressures for greater action.

But it is worth highlighting and reflecting on the progress the world has made, as it shows that it can be done and provides a template for achieving more.

Push

So what are the signs of progress amid climate gloom?

The scariest scenarios that many only worried about a few years ago seem more and more likely. This includes the warming of 4 or 5 °C this century. I and others previously highlighted as a possibility.

The UN climate panel’s previous high-level emissions scenario, known as RCP 8.5, found that global temperatures could rise by more than 5 °C by 2100. achieve high-level results that are frequently mentioned in the press. (Guilty.)

Some are arguing It wasn’t that convincing at first. The scenario seems increasingly difficult, given the rapid transition from coal-fired power plants to initially lower-emission natural gas, but increasingly carbon-free wind and solar.

global emissions it may already be flattened When we take into account recent revisions to land use changes, which means updated accounts of forests, farmland and grassland, the world wins and loses.

If you add together all the climate policies currently in place around the world today, we are currently on a moderately estimated 2.7°C warming path this century. Climate Action Monitor. (Similarly, the UN’s final report found that the planet is likely to warm between 2.1 and 3.5 °C under the “intermediate” emission scenario.)

Assuming that countries will meet their emissions commitments under the Paris agreement, this includes new timed commitments. The last UN summit in Glasgow, the figure drops to 2.4 °C. And if every country hits net-zero emissions targets by mid-century, it would drop to 1.8°C.

Given the increasingly stringent climate policies and the rapidly falling costs of solar and wind, we are about to witness utter disaster. boom in renewable development. The International Energy Agency, which has been known in the past for underestimating the growth of renewable energy sources, says now that global capacity will increase by more than 60% by 2026. At this point, solar, wind, hydroelectric dams and other renewable energy facilities will compete with the capacity of fossil fuel and nuclear power plants worldwide.

Sales of new electric vehicles, which have been rising in low single digits for years, are also increasing. As automakers introduce more models and governments implement increasingly aggressive policies, they will jump by more than 80% from the 2020 figures to reach nearly 5.6 million this year. according to this BloombergNEF.

Electric vehicles rose from 2.8% of new sales in the first half of 2019 to 7% in the first half of 2021, with large gains particularly in China and Europe. Zero-emission vehicles will account for around 30% of all new purchases by 2030. research firm projects.

Progress

Meanwhile, there are many signs of technological progress. Researchers and companies find ways to produce carbonless steel and cement. Plant-based meat alternatives on the rise tastier and more popular faster than anyone expected. Businesses are building increasingly larger plants absorbing carbon dioxide from the air. Venture capital investments in climate and clean technology startups rose to unprecedented levels, totaling more than $30 billion in the third quarter, according to PitchBook.

And here’s an important and illogical finding: As dangerous, extreme weather events become more common or severe, the world seems much better at keeping people safe from them. The average number of deaths from natural disasters has generally declined sharply in recent years.

“We have better technologies to predict storms, wildfires and floods; infrastructure to protect ourselves; and networks to cooperate and recover when disaster strikes” registered Hannah Ritchie, head of research at Our World of Data, said in a recent Wired UK article: own research.

This gives additional hope that with the right investments in climate adaptation measures such as seawalls and community cooling centres, we can manage some of the increased risks we will face. However, the rich countries emitting the most greenhouse gases should provide financial assistance to help poor countries strengthen their defences.

A realistic foundation

Some people have seized on these signs of improvement to argue that climate change won’t be so bad after all. This is bullshit. The world, however, is still significantly under-reacting to increased risks.

almost a planet 3 °C warmer it would be a much more dangerous and unpredictable place. These temperatures threaten to destroy coral reefs, sink large parts of our coastal cities and low-lying islands, and expose millions of people to greater risks such as extreme heat waves, drought, famine and flooding.

In addition, we may still be underestimating how sensitive the atmosphere is to greenhouse gases, the spiraling effects of climate breakouts, and the dangers posed by these high temperatures. And there is no guarantee that countries will not back down from their policies and commitments in the face of economic shocks, conflicts and other unforeseen events.

But a 3 °C warmer world is a much more habitable place than a 5 °C warmer world, and a much more promising starting point for reaching 2 °C.

“The point is not to say it’s a good result,” says Zeke Hausfather, climate and energy director at the Breakthrough Institute. “The thing is, that’s the baseline we’re working on right now. And from there it’s easier to imagine much faster declines.”

In some ways, it’s particularly remarkable that the world has made so much progress without sweeping climate policies in many countries and despite all the toxic, partisan policies surrounding climate change.

The move to natural gas, then to solar and wind, and increasingly to EVs, has been supported by government support, including loans. subsidies and other policies this pushed core technologies to market. And business-driven scale-up has helped these technologies become more attractive by rapidly reducing their costs.

Increasingly competitive and business-friendly clean alternatives, to simplify politics more climate action. If more and more countries implement increasingly aggressive policies, such as carbon taxes, clean energy standards, or much more funding for research and demonstration projects, we will reduce emissions even faster.

the world is not ending

There are other reasons to note the modest progress we’ve made.

Progressive US politicians are now casually repeating the claim that climate change is an “existential threat”, arguing that climate change will wipe out all of humanity. After the 2018 UN report stated that global warming could reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052, climate activists and media outlets distorted that finding, “We have 12 years to save the planet!”

If so, it would now be down to nine. But 1.5°C is not a scientifically determined threshold of social collapse. While the world will miss this target, fighting for every half degree of warming beyond that remains vital, and each brings consistently higher risks.

Meanwhile, climate research does not suggest that the 3°C warming we now aim for roughly will turn the entire planet into an uninhabitable hellscape.

So no, climate change is not an existential threat.

But that feeling definitely took hold. Earlier this year, researchers at the University of Bath surveyed 10,000 youth aged 16 to 25 in 10 countries to assess their level of “climate anxiety.” More than half, 56%, acceptance With the phrase “Humanity is doomed”.

It is standard for politicians and activists to exaggerate the dangers and demands in hopes of moving towards a compromise solution. Rising climate fears and the increasingly influential climate activist movement have undoubtedly helped drive some of the policy changes we are seeing, putting more pressure on politicians and business to take these issues more seriously. They deserve real credit for that.

But insisting that the world is on the verge of collapse when it isn’t is a terrible message for young people, and it also carries some real risks. It clearly undermines credibility. It may cause some people to lose hope. And it can force others to demand excessive and often unproductive responses.

“It’s time to stop telling our kids they’re going to die from climate change,” Ritchie said. Wrote. “This is not only cruel, but it can also make it more likely to happen.”

People are areasonable way forwardThey begin to rationalize the irrational.

From what I’ve heard with surprising frequency: We must shut down all fossil fuel infrastructure and end oil and gas extraction immediately. We must fix things with today’s technologies and reject the “predatory delay” tactic of continued investment in clean energy innovation. We have to stop consumption, construction and economic development. In fact: We must smash the global capitalist system that is causing all the problems!

Balancing trades

None of this seems to me more politically appropriate than repairing our energy systems.

We need to shut down fossil fuel factories, replace vehicles, and move to new ways of producing food, cement, steel and other commodities – relatively quickly. But we must do this by developing alternatives that don’t pump greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

If we set the goalpost back to 2°C, which is sad but just realistic at this point, we still have decades to make the necessary transformation. Under a modest emissions scenario, the world will not cross this threshold until 2052, as a medium estimate. Hausfather’s analysis According to the UN’s latest climate report.

What we cannot do is shut down the infrastructure that drives the global economy without major damage to jobs, food, health care and security. We would sacrifice the economic resources we need to develop a more sustainable economy and make our societies more resilient to the coming climate hazards.