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as President Vladimir V. Putin in September 2017 presidential On the televised destruction of what he called Russia’s last chemical weapon, saluted their elimination is seen as “a big step towards making the modern world more stable and secure”.

Now, years later, President Biden and Western leaders they warn He said Russia could carry out chemical attacks in Ukraine. Contrary to the Russian leader’s clearer nuclear warnings, no concrete evidence has emerged that chemical weapons have been deployed on or near the battlefield. Analysts still see the threat of chemical warfare as real because Mr. Putin has long shown his willingness to ignore the international ban on chemical weapons. This helps create a toxic atmosphere of intimidation that can give Russia an advantage on the battlefield without ever having to fire.

“He’s already scaring people,” he said. hanna notteExperts on Russia’s use of chemical weapons at the James Martin Center for Nuclear Non-Proliferation Research in Monterey, California, said that far-reaching concern has mobilized the West. to ensure Kyiv is equipped and trained to prevent any chemical attack.

“This is a narrative war” Nikolai SokovA former Soviet diplomat who negotiated arms control agreements said about Ukraine and Russia, each accusing the other of preparing for chemical warfare. He added, “They blame each other, so it’s definitely an attempt to score points in an information war.”

Concerns about chemical warfare began on April 11, when the Azov Regiment, a Ukrainian military unit in the besieged city of Mariupol, reported he is a russian flying eye had left a “toxic substance” in the sprawling steel mill where the defenders were located. had taken refuge. The victims were said to have experienced dizziness, respiratory pain and eye inflammation. The allegations made in a video released by the regiment were not confirmed.

“I saw a fog,” a supine man with eyes tightly closed I said in the video. “It was very difficult to breathe.” He said his legs were getting weaker. “I felt so bad,” the man said between weary breaths.

Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, headquartered in The Hague I said He was “closely monitoring the situation in Ukraine” and was investigating the reported attack.

chemical weapons has It is relatively inexpensive and easy to manufacture compared to biological and nuclear weapons. But modest amounts can result in mass losses. military textbooks to show victims covered with burns and giant blisters. The eyes, nose, and lungs—organs that come into easy contact with air or aerosolized toxins—are particularly vulnerable.

“Guns scare people and create panic,” he said. Leiv K. Sydney, a chemist at the University of Bergen in Norway who advises the deal organization. “The military goal is to undermine the confidence of soldiers and civilians in their bunkers, fortifications and hiding places.”

After the Cold War, which was a global agreement, Chemical Weapons Conventionbanned the development, production, stockpiling and use of chemical weapons. The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons oversees the treaty in The Hague and relies on a global network of laboratories to examine field samples for signs of illegal use. The organization has 193 member states, all of which have signed the treaty.

When Russia signed the contract in 1993, declaration It has over 40,000 tons of chemical weapons – the world’s largest arsenal. Ammunition included mustard gasburning eyes and lungs, as well as various nerve agents.

Unlike Russia’s nuclear weapons and military doctrine For their use, Moscow never held chemical warfare games and field exercises after the Cold War. But some experts believe the smaller-scale uses of chemical agents and Russia’s involvement in the Syrian conflict demonstrate Putin’s clear commitment to chemical warfare.

Russian security agents in 2002 pumped a poisonous gas He entered a Moscow theater to end a hostage crisis that has killed more than 100 people. Officials defended the action and said there was no violation of the chemical treaty – the claim of American experts came to argue. Mr Putin was the president of Russia at the time.

Experts say Kremlin’s darkest hour with chemical weapons came to SyriaHe protected the regime of President Bashar al-Assad from civil unrest and crime in years of poisonous attacks against insurgents and the civilian population.

Assad’s forces in August 2013 shocked the world US officials said more than 1,400 people were killed by firing toxic chemicals into rebel-held towns near the capital, Damascus.

Obama administration defined The main poison, like sarin, is a liquid nerve agent that evaporates into a deadly mist that human skin can quickly absorb. Reported symptoms included loss of consciousness, foaming at the nose and mouth, rapid heartbeat, and difficulty breathing. Nerve agents put the body’s nerves and muscles into overdrive, causing spasms, paralysis, and death if concentrated enough. The iris, a muscle, contracts so much that victims’ pupils often constrict into small dots.

Many experts argue that such a blatant violation of international law would lead to Western military intervention, particularly President Barack Obama’s declaration The use of chemical weapons is a “red line”.

But Mr. Putin in the New York Times sight piececalled for restraint. “We must stop using the language of force and return to the path of civil, diplomatic and political solution,” he said. The crisis in Moscow is over suggested Syria’s chemical arsenal subjecting to international control and eventually destroying deadly weapons.

In September 2015, Putin sent General Aleksandr V. Dvornikov and Russian forces to assist Mr. Assad’s struggling army. Russian jets soon began bombing Syrian cities. General Dvornikov co-pioneer a disinformation strategy that falsely accuses insurgents of government attacks, including deadly chemical attacks. Damascus, it outputkept at least some of his poison arsenal.

James Martin Center’s expert on the Syrian conflict, Dr. The job of identifying the type and perpetrator of the poison could take months, sometimes a year, Notte said. “It’s very difficult to hold a state accountable,” he said. The same may be true in the end, added in noteIf Russia carries out chemical attacks in Ukraine.

Research can be daunting if wind or rain disperses the poisons. some chemical agents volatile and evaporates easily. Often, a challenge is to ensure the integrity of what the experts describe. chain of custody — careful monitoring of how a sample moves from collection to transport and laboratory analysis as a way to prevent tampering. The chaos of war can make this task particularly difficult.

Experts say that detecting the Kremlin’s use of chemicals is relatively easy on the battlefield. In March 2018, Sergei V. SkripalA former Russian military officer who worked as a double agent in Britain’s intelligence services was found slumped on a park bench in the quiet British cathedral city of Salisbury, hallucinating and foaming at the mouth. It was her daughter who was crushed before him.

Then, in August 2020, Alexei A. NavalnyA ruthless critic of Mr. Putin and the president’s main political rival, he was flying to Moscow when he fell violently ill. Confused and sweating heavily, vomitedcollapsed and lost consciousness.

both men they have been being poisoned by a military-grade nerve agent Novichok familyA powerful class of chemical weapons developed during the Soviet era.

The poisonings spoke to what experts have long suspected – Mr. Putin has retained at least parts of his vast arsenal. Worse, analysts saw the Skripal incident as proof that the Russian leader, as investigators, was prepared to use weapons overseas. found infected by two Russian agents noviok On the handle of the front door of Mr. Skripal’s house.

Although Russian authorities deny involvement in the two attacks or the possession of chemical weapons, both the Trump and Biden administrations sanctions imposed about a series of Russian spies, officials and research institutes.

Last year, Joseph Manso, the US representative of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, in your name The Novichok poisonings are a “clear violation” of the Chemical Weapons Convention and a “threat to international security”.

Western authorities in Ukraine to warnMoscow is now using the disinformation playbook it has developed in Syria, using Kiev’s preparations for chemical attacks as a pretext for its own attacks. “Radical Ukrainian groups”, representative of the agreement group I said On March 10, “we have prepared several potential scenarios for the use of toxic chemicals.” Weeks later, the Azov Regiment in Mariupol accused Russia of the attack.

Also, Moscow in April appointed Former Syrian commander, General Dvornikov, as the top military leader of the Ukrainian war.

The great uncertainty today is how the West would react if a major chemical attack in Ukraine were clearly linked to Russia. Unlike the situation with nuclear weapons, where atomic rivals retain the possibility of retaliating, the West has given up on the use of deadly poisons.

analysts suggested More diplomatic pressure, more sanctions and more cuts in Russia’s oil and gas imports to Europe. They have argued He said that the response to chemical attacks on civilians rather than military units should be much more violent.

James Martin Center’s Dr. Notte said that people fear chemical weapons not only because of the dire consequences for humans, but also because of the dilemma of response.

“The reason it scares people is that we don’t have good answers in case it does,” he said. “Russia understands that we are limited, and that raises fears,” he said.