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The Green Future Index is a ranking of 76 countries and regions in terms of their progress and commitment to building a low-carbon future. It measures the extent to which their economies are moving towards clean energy, industry, agriculture and society through innovation, policy and renewable energy investments.

The Green Future Index 2022 survey ended in January 2022, before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This conflict is likely to have far-reaching and ongoing implications for the sustainability efforts of countries around the world. While MIT Technology Review Insights strives to convey the most accurate information possible, we can expect the economic, social, and political climate to continue to change.

The Green Future Index 2022 is the second annual comparative ranking of 76 countries and regions (representing approximately 95% of global GDP) according to their ability to develop a sustainable, low-carbon future for their economies and societies. As in its first year, the index was developed through in-depth primary and secondary research processes. Secondary research included reviews of several hundred articles, research reports and articles in the scientific literature, and news and legal analysis journals. The primary research was conducted through more than 20 in-depth interviews with global experts on climate change, green energy and decarbonisation technologies.

This research process enabled us to select 22 different country-level datasets to form our assessment and indicators of the index. The data came from a variety of publicly available sources, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Renewable Energy Agency, the World Bank, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Association (FAO), the World Intellectual Property Organization, and the World Intellectual Property Organization. Climate Action Monitor (CAT).

Where it was necessary to fill in the gaps, we expanded and improved existing datasets by conducting additional in-depth research on selected countries and consulting with global experts. This has been done in climate policy and carbon finance initiatives indicators and new indicators added to this year’s index, particularly in defining the “readiness” of carbon capture and sequestration and in developing forecasts for electric vehicle penetration (see Is it different in the 2022 Green Future Index?”).

Indicator datasets were converted to graded scores in one of two ways. For quantitative measures such as growth rates or values, each data point for each country was scaled up or down using minimum-maximum normalization to develop a range of scores for that indicator across all countries. For largely qualitative or non-standard data, a ranking classification system was developed and a score was assigned to each country. After all 22 indicators were scored, they were organized into five separate columns. The structure of this second edition of the Green Future Index remains largely the same as the 2021 edition (see section “What’s different about the 2022 Green Future Index?”) with a few added indicators to expand the scope of sustainable activities.

Column 1: Carbon emissions – This column measures how effectively countries are reining in carbon dioxide emissions in general, as well as in key sectors. The indicators in this column are:

• Total carbon dioxide emissions in million tons of GDP in 2019
• Average annual change in carbon dioxide emissions between 2014 and 2019, both in aggregate and for each of the industry, transport and agriculture sectors

Column 2: Energy transition– This column evaluates the contribution and growth rate of renewable energy sources and now includes nuclear energy. The indicators in this column are:

• Growth of renewable energy generation in gigawatt-hours between 2014 and 2019
• Percentage of energy from renewable sources in final energy consumption in 2018
• Growth of nuclear power generation in gigawatt-hours between 2014 and 2019
• Percentage of energy from nuclear production in final energy consumption in 2018

Column 3: Green society – This column measures efforts by government, industry and society to promote green practices. Indicators measure:

• Number of LEED certified green buildings per million urban population in 2020
• Percentage of solid waste recycled as percent of total waste managed
• Net change in afforestation between 2015 and 2020: an indicator combining changes in forestland acreage through naturally regenerated primary growth and changes made by planned afforestation projects
• Number of stock electric passenger cars per million urban population in 2020

Pillar 4: Clean innovation – This column measures the innovation climate for building a low-carbon future, such as the relative penetration of green patents, investment in cross-border clean energy, and investment in food technology. Indicators measure:

• Growth in green intellectual property is measured by GDP growth between 2013 and 2018 in patents registered for sustainable technologies or processes and solutions.
• Ratio of a country’s investment in clean energy efforts to GDP between 2014 and 2018
• Number of food tech startups per million urban population

Column 5: Climate policy – This column measures the ambition and effectiveness of climate policy, including carbon finance initiatives, sustainable agricultural policy and the use of pandemic recovery spending to achieve a green economic recovery. Indicators include:

• A qualitative assessment of policy action to achieve stated climate goals in line with the Paris Agreement and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
• A qualitative assessment of policy and regulatory frameworks to promote carbon capture and separation efforts (CCS).
• A qualitative assessment of the measures taken by each country to create fiscal incentives for firms and investors to assign a cost to carbon emissions, through the application of carbon taxes and the creation of a market for carbon bonds and emissions trading systems.
• A qualitative assessment of sustainable agricultural policies assesses the comprehensiveness and effectiveness of implementation
• Evaluation of the extent to which Covid-19 recovery stimulus packages will accelerate decarbonisation and result in a “pandemic pivot” between the two measures:
  1. Energy transition impact—scoring countries by proportion of incentive spending on new energy initiatives relative to fossil fuel projects
  2. Green incentive initiatives—Score countries by percentage of total incentive spending allocated to sustainable, low-carbon key public infrastructure projects (such as transport, water, public spaces, and information).

These pillars are built to comprehensively assess each country’s green future in two dimensions: the progress they have made in achieving carbon reduction targets and other climate-friendly societal activities, and the goals the country must achieve to maintain a carbon-neutral economy. The first four “progress columns” account for 60% of the weight in the index. The fifth pillar, climate policy, measures the extent to which investment and policy activities are channeled into green infrastructure initiatives and regulatory frameworks. We believe these factors collectively provide the primary impetus for creating and sustaining a country’s green future, and this column therefore accounts for 40% of the Index weight.

The MIT Technology Review was founded in 1899 at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. We are the leading voice on climate change issues, with a dedicated topic area on our website for the global climate emergency, including innovations that can accelerate decarbonisation, and national climate policy initiatives.

MIT Technology Review Insights is the special publishing division of MIT Technology Review. We conduct qualitative and quantitative research and analysis worldwide and publish a wide variety of content, including articles, reports, infographics, videos and podcasts.

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