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It’s night on the streets of Ibaraki prefecture in Japan when the Olympic torch comes on. a viral video It shows the torchbearer slowly passing by the spectators lining the road. Then, as the flames pass, a woman from the crowd shoots with a water gun.

“Extinguish the Olympic torch! Oppose the Tokyo Olympics!” yelling. Security runs around him.

Such is the backdrop for the upcoming Olympic and Paralympic games, which will kick off in Tokyo on July 23, with increased cases of covid-19 causing the city to announce its fourth state of emergency since the start of the pandemic. The rising caseload is particularly troubling as the country’s vaccination rate remains low. Only 18% of Japan’s population is fully vaccinated.

Still, the International Olympic Committee is pressing. in danger millions of dollars in sunk costs—Tokyo’s Olympic stadium alone cost $1.4 billion – and billions more In potential revenue for the IOC, Japan, local organizers and broadcasters.

A global health crisis far from over, a staggering amount of money and a government determined to bear the fruit of gambling: the forces clashing in Tokyo are unprecedented. And even with strict new rules at play, experts are worried that covid-19 could get worse in Japan.

Keeping athletes safe

About 100,000 athletes, staff and family members and others are expected to enter Japan for the Olympic and Paralympic games, and organizers say they are doing everything they can to keep them safe.

Brian McCloskey, chair of an independent panel advising the IOC on covid-19 mitigation measures for Tokyo, acknowledges the concerns. Athletes, staff and others will be watched closely to reduce the risk of spreading the virus, he says.

“The goal is not to have a coronavirus in Tokyo,” McCloskey says. “The goal is to stop these individual cases from growing into clusters and spreading events.”

Athletes, staff and officials will be tested at various intervals during the games. Olympic Village residents will be tested every day, for example Japanese workers who have close contact with athletes will be tested more often than people who direct traffic. McCloskey said a contact tracing system will be used to help contain any cases that arise at the Olympic Village. Anyone entering Japan will need to download a contact tracking app, and athletes and media members will be asked to turn on GPS tracking on their phones. Organizers say location data will only be used if there are cases of covid.

As the games approached, the measures became more and more stringent. Audience members from other countries were banned months ago, and it was announced earlier this month that there will be no audience members at venues in and around Tokyo.

McCloskey says there are precedents for running games under a public health threat—even if previous ones weren’t on the same scale as covid. When he advised the IOC for the 2012 London Olympics, he says organizers considered the potential for a SARS pandemic to emerge. Before the 2016 games in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil, there were concerns about Zika (WHO). later said there are no reported cases in athletes or spectators).

For Tokyo, the IOC has published several instruction books for athletes, staff, volunteers and the press.

But despite strict rules, games will inevitably mean people mingling and interacting in ways that wouldn’t otherwise exist.

“It’s not just the thing,” says Linsey Marr, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Virginia Tech, a leading expert on airborne transmission of viruses. “Everything else related to the event: hotels, restaurants, transportation.”