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But six weeks ago, his situation changed thanks to Starlink. Woodward has become a beta user of SpaceX’s internet service, which uses a growing fleet of 1,600 Earth-orbiting satellites to provide internet access to people on the surface. As of the end of July, the company was reporting close to 90,000 users. “I became a true Starlink fan within the first few weeks,” Woodward says.

“For anyone who lives a mundane life like me, Starlink will sound like some kind of revelation,” he adds.

But Starlink wasn’t just designed to connect remote cybersecurity professors: SpaceX made bigger claims than that. It hopes to bring high-speed satellite internet to most of the 3.7 billion people on this planet who currently have no internet connection. Many simply settle for cell phone connections; this is an expensive solution in itself. (One gigabit of data in sub-Saharan Africa costs 40% of the average monthly fee.)

And that doesn’t even take into account people who have internet access but no broadband connection. Nearly all of the US has internet access, but the 157 million Americans, most of whom live in rural communities,do not use on broadband speeds. black communities disproportionately more likely to lack broadband internet access, even when they are close to whiter (and wealthier) communities. After living with Covid and an era when most people rely on the internet as their lifeline, it’s hard to imagine that high-speed internet is still an unattainable luxury for some.

Unfortunately, it’s unclear whether Starlink can actually solve this larger problem. “It’s really designed for sparsely populated areas,” SpaceX founder Elon Musk said at a conference in June. “We will be able to serve a limited number of customers in densely populated areas.” And many rural citizens of the world will be locked out for not being able to afford it.

Starlink must quickly cut costs to expand its customer base, but at the same time have enough money to continue launching hundreds or even thousands of satellites each year. A delicate needle that may be impossible to thread.

price points

Typical satellite internet services place only a few satellites in very high orbits, called geo-orbits. From there, individual satellites can provide wider coverage, but the latency (or latency) is greater. Woodward had used such services before, but always found them “useless”.

Starlink and its competitors like OneWeb and Amazon Kuiper are instead placing tens of thousands of satellites into low Earth orbit (LEO). The closer they are to Earth means the latency is significantly reduced. And while each covers a smaller area, the sheer number of numbers means they should theoretically cover the planet with coverage and prevent any loss of connectivity.

Starlink started beta testing last year and is currently available in 14 countries. Last December, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission awarded SpaceX $886 million as part of its Rural Digital Opportunity Fund (RDOF), which subsidizes U.S. telecom companies building infrastructure to help provide broadband access to rural areas.

But it’s not entirely clear whether rural America is a viable customer base for Starlink. The biggest problem is cost. Starlink subscription is $99. Speeds can vary widely, but the average user should expect 50 to 150 megabits per second. You have to pay traditional satellite internet companies like Viasat (which runs geostatic satellites) doubles that amount to get the same speeds. Not bad.

However, it is the upfront payment that will impress you the most with Starlink. Things like a satellite dish and router cost $499, and this equipment is sold at a loss to customers. SpaceX founder Elon Musk has previously said he hopes these costs will approach $250, but it’s unclear when or if that will happen. For much of the rural world, in America and elsewhere, the price is too high.

So who will be the first Starlink users? The physical and financial demands of building satellites and launching them into orbit (which is cheaper than ever, but still a very expensive undertaking) mean Starlink will run at a loss for a while, says Derek Turner, a technology policy analyst at the Free Press. nonprofit organization advocating open communication. Reducing costs will mean looking beyond rural disconnected individuals.

Instead, initial customers are more likely to include the US military, which relies on geo-satellites that often suffer from congested service and high latency when operating in remote areas. Both of them Air forces and ArmyThey are interested in testing Starlink. Some intelligence experts drew attention to the problematic withdrawal from Afghanistan For instance about where the service can help.

Airlines looking to offer their passengers faster and more stable inflight Wi-Fi they also look at Starlink. Other commercial businesses in rural areas may also find value in this. And of course, there are techies and curious customers in the suburbs and cities who have the money to try it out.

In Turner’s view, adding these customers could help keep prices down for everyone, but it also means less bandwidth. Starlink may eventually offset this problem by launching more satellites it plans to do, but that’s assuming it has enough subscribers.

Musk said it will take tens of billions of dollars in capital for Starlink to have enough capacity to generate a positive cash flow. It has successfully launched 1,600 satellites so far, but the ultimate goal of 42,000 is a completely different matter. “It doesn’t scale as well as wired broadband,” Turner says. It is not yet clear how many satellites Starlink will need to provide reliable high-speed internet to hundreds of thousands or even millions of simultaneous subscribers.

And for many customers, especially commercial businesses, there are cheaper Starlink alternatives that can meet their needs. Using smart sensors to monitor things like local weather and soil conditions, a farmer doesn’t need broadband internet to connect these devices. This is where smaller companies like US-based Swarm come in: It uses a fleet of 120+ small satellites to help connect IoT devices for such use cases. Swarm (recently acquired by SpaceX) offers a data plan that starts at just $5 per month. And of course, if you’re in a densely populated area, spending $99 per month with another ISP will likely get your speed closer to 1,000 mbps.

backtracking

On the surface, the FCC’s RDOF award to Starlink demonstrates that rural America is an important part of how Starlink will grow. But Turner says this is a misunderstanding and SpaceX shouldn’t be allowed to drop its RDOF offerings in the first place because it will already build the Starlink network. “I think it would be better to direct the FCC’s resources towards bringing future broadband into areas where it doesn’t make sense to deploy economically,” he says.

FCC acting chairman Jessica Rosenworcel led a review late last year of how RDOF subsidies were awarded under her predecessor, Ajit Pai, and found that billions of dollars were handed out to companies to take broadband internet to places where it was unnecessary or inappropriate. parking lots and well-served urban areas.” According to a report by the Free Press, about $111 million of SpaceX’s own bounty will go to urban areas or places that don’t have real infrastructure or need an internet connection like highway medians. The FCC is essentially asking these companies, including Starlink, to return some of the money. (SpaceX did not respond to questions or requests for comment.)

Turner acknowledges that LEO satellites “will be a very important innovation in telecommunications.” However, he still thinks services like Starlink will be a niche product in the US even in the long run, and sees the general trend towards fiber continues. Even an emerging technology like 5G relies on very dense antenna networks that can connect to fibers as quickly as possible. Cable broadband has continually evolved over time as companies bring fiber networks deeper and closer to customers.

Underdeveloped areas of the world may see Starlink as a boon, as most of these places do not have physical networks like the cable system the US put out in the 1970s, 80s and 90s. But so far, beta testing is exclusive to the US, Canada, parts of Europe, Australia, New Zealand and Chile. It’s too early to tell what impact it might have on the developing world, especially if subscription and equipment costs remain high.

Woodward’s experience is the kind the company would like to copy for all of its customers. But Woodward knows he’s lucky he can afford Starlink and is able to meet her needs. At least for now. “It will be interesting to see how Starlink holds up once they reach 200,000 users,” he says. “Prices will have to come down, but speeds and service will have to stay the same. That will be determined.”