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Bangladesh’s Red Cross representative, Achala Navaratne, said half of the volunteers were women. This is important for gender equality, but also to ensure that women hear from other women. “Early action is the critical factor,” she said. “Having community volunteers from their own community helps.”

Bangladesh has long been vulnerable to cyclones forming over the Bay of Bengal. Climate change could intensify strength and frequency of cyclones.

There are more than 5,000 permanent cyclone shelters in Bangladesh. Twice as many shelters had to be built during Hurricane Amphan, which hit Bangladesh in May 2020 amid the coronavirus pandemic. More space was needed for physical distancing. Altogether, 2 million Bangladeshis were evacuated from their homes, along with 500,000 cattle and goats. Livestock is often a rural family’s main source of livelihood and assets – their salaries and savings accounts. These should also be taken into account in early warning efforts.

World Meteorological Organization Refers to Cyclone Amphan measures as an effective early warning model. The death toll in Bangladesh was limited to 72 people.

“Bangladesh can share multiple lessons on good preparation with other countries,” Navaratne said.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres recently commissioned the WMO to draw up a global plan to cover everyone in the world with early warning systems.

A third of the global population is not covered, and this share is much higher for African people. “This is unacceptable,” Guterres said, “especially the climate impacts are certain to get worse.”

However, simply creating an early warning system is not enough.

Let’s take the example of Brazil. In February, meteorologists could not predict the extraordinary rains that pounded the hills above Rio. Within three hours, 10 inches of precipitation fell over the city of Petrópolis, the highest since records began in 1932. The mudslides that followed killed more than 200 people, Marcelo Seluchi, who coordinated modeling and operations for the country’s early warning system, told me. my colleague Manuela Andreoni. In contrast, accurate estimates of heavy rainfall in the states of Minas Gerais and Bahia have capped the death toll in each state to around 20 this year as well.