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WASHINGTON – Worsening conflict within and between nations. Increased displacement and migration as people flee climate-induced instability. Increasing military tension and uncertainty. Financial hazards.
The Biden administration released several reports on climate change and national security on Thursday, laying out in solid terms the ways the warming world is starting to significantly challenge stability around the world.
Documents released by the Homeland Security and Defense departments, as well as the National Security Council and the director of national intelligence, mark the first time that the country’s security agencies have collectively communicated the climate risks they face.
The reports include warnings from the intelligence community about how climate change can work at various levels to reduce a nation’s power. For example, countries like Iraq and Algeria could be affected by the loss of income from fossil fuels, even as their regions face worsening heat and drought. The Pentagon warned that food shortages could lead to unrest between countries, along with fights over water.
The Department of Homeland Security, which includes the US Coast Guard, has warned that competition for fish, minerals and other resources will increase as the Arctic Ocean ice melts. Another report warned that tens of millions of people are likely to be displaced by climate change by 2050, including 143 million people in South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.
National security alerts came the same day for the first time from top financial regulators. marked climate change as an “emerging threat” to the American economy. More frequent and devastating disasters such as hurricanes, floods and wildfires are causing property damage, loss of income and business interruptions that threaten to change the way real estate and other assets are valued, according to a report by a federal and government board. state regulators. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, as of October 8, 18 “weather/climate disaster events” have occurred in 2021, each costing more than $1 billion.
The reports came as President Biden was preparing to attend a major United Nations climate conference in Glasgow known as COP26. With the climate agenda stalling in Congress, Mr. Biden risks making little progress in Glasgow, where the administration hopes to re-establish US leadership on warming.
The White House said on Thursday that the reports “reinforce the President’s commitment to evidence-based decisions driven by the best available science and data” and “will provide a foundation for our critical work on climate and security going forward.”
The idea that climate change is a national security threat is not new – the Obama administration has said the same thing and has begun to force the Pentagon to consider climate risks. Taken together, however, the reports mark a new phase in US policy that places climate change at the center of the nation’s security planning.
Perhaps the largest and most comprehensive of the documents, National Intelligence EstimateThis is to gather and distill the views of the nation’s intelligence agencies on specific threats. Only the first to look at the climate issue said the risks to American national security will only increase in the coming years.
The document made three important decisions. Global tensions will escalate as countries argue over how to accelerate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change will exacerbate cross-border flashpoints and increase strategic competition in the Arctic. And the effects of climate change will be felt most acutely in developing countries that are least equipped to adapt.
According to forecasts, China and India, with their large populations and heavy use of fossil fuels, will largely determine how quickly global temperatures rise.
Nations do not have good luck It will fulfill its commitments under Paris 2015 According to intelligence reports, agreement has been reached to keep the average rise in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. The world has already warmed by about 1.1 degrees Celsius. Scientists say that if it exceeds the 2 degree threshold, the planet will experience increasingly deadly floods, fires, storms and ecosystem collapse.
“Given the current government policies and trends in technology development, we collectively conclude that countries are unlikely to achieve their Paris goals,” the report said. “High-emission countries will have to make rapid progress towards decarbonizing their energy systems by moving away from fossil fuels over the next decade, while developing countries will need to rely on low-carbon energy sources for their economic development.”
The intelligence report identified 11 countries that are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and are particularly unable to cope with its impacts. This list included four countries close to the United States, including Guatemala and Haiti; three nuclear-armed countries (North Korea, Pakistan, and India); and Afghanistan and Iraq, two countries occupied by the US after the September 11 attacks.
Intelligence agencies added that the fight to respond to climate change could benefit other countries, particularly those that are leaders in emerging renewable energy technologies or the raw materials needed to produce them. China controls most of the world’s processing capacity for cobalt, lithium and other minerals needed for electric vehicle batteries, as well as rare earth minerals used in wind turbines and electric vehicle engines.
Other countries, such as Norway and the United Kingdom, have the advantage of meeting the growing demand to remove carbon dioxide from the air, due to government policies such as the carbon price that supports the development of this technology, the report said.
Federal officials noted how climate change is melting Arctic ice, opening the Northwest Passage between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, and paving the way for competition for resources and sea routes for commercial shipping between Russia, China, Canada and the United States, among others.
The Pentagon, which publishes a own reportHe said the military will begin spending a significant portion of its budget to include climate-related threats in its planning.
The Department of Defense faces countless climates risks. Its bases are vulnerable to floods, fires, droughts and rising sea levels. Among countless other examples, the Coronado Naval Base suffered isolated and flash flooding during tropical storm events, particularly during the El Niño years, Navy Air Base Key West was hit by severe drought a few years ago, and a forest fire in 2017 destroyed 380 acres of Vandenberg Air. lit. Force Base in Southern California. Drought, fires and flooding can also interfere with the Pentagon’s ability to train its forces and test equipment.
Sherri Goodman, former defense secretary for environmental security and now general secretary of the International Climate and Security Council, said the Pentagon was “justified in directly integrating the concept of climate change as a threat multiplier into all aspects of its defense strategy.” planning, power stance and budget.”
The Department of Homeland Security, which includes the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said it will begin to make climate change the focus of preparedness grants for state and local governments. It also said it would incorporate changing science into the guidance it provides to the public and private sectors on how to manage risk.
The agency said it plans to hire more employees with scientific expertise, including policy-making and public outreach divisions.
“From extreme weather events to record temperatures, the DHS workforce is at the forefront of the climate emergency every day,” homeland security secretary Alejandro N. Majorcas said on Thursday.
When it comes to immigration, the United States is already feeling the effects of climate change, with deadly and devastating hurricanes sweeping away immigrants from Central America. People trying to enter the United States via Mexico have overwhelmed border officials at various times since 2014, and particularly in the last six months.
The National Security Council announced its decision report On Thursday, looking at how climate change is forcing people to leave their homes. The report cites an estimate that suggests climate change could cause almost three percent of the population of Latin America, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa to move within their countries by 2050 – more than 143 million people.
Climate events are often one of several factors that force people to act, including conflict and violence, the report said.
In February, Mr. Biden signed an executive order directing the National Security Council to offer options to protect and resettle people displaced by climate change.
The report, released Thursday, recommends that the White House “work with Congress to establish a new legal pathway for individualized humanitarian protection in the United States for individuals facing serious threats to their lives due to climate change.”
Teevrat Garg, an economics professor specializing in climate migration at the University of California at San Diego, welcomed management’s interest in the issue. But he said the report could address the deeper question of what the United States and other developed countries owe climate migrants.
Dr. “Most of the carbon emissions that cause climate change came from rich countries, but the consequences are disproportionately borne by the poor,” Garg said. As a result, rich countries have an “obligation to support climate refugees”.
Kayly Ober, a senior advocate and program manager for the Climate Displacement Program at Refugees International, described the report as disappointing, a review of the challenges around climate migration rather than a set of prescriptions for how to address it. “This is a great missed opportunity,” said Ms. Ober. “I don’t think the Biden administration has fully figured out what it wants to do.”
Somini Sengupta contributing reporting.
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