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Dry conditions are expected across the region into spring and beyond, dashing hopes of surviving the relentless drought in the West, forecasters said on Thursday.

Dan Collins, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said at a briefing that the continuation of La Niña, a climate pattern that originates in the Pacific Ocean and affects weather around the world, will contribute to the expected temperature to be higher than normal temperatures. , and lower than normal precipitation in most of the West through May.

Dr. Collins said he doesn’t expect to see much improvement beyond that month, especially in California. brutally dry conditions last summer This led to water shortages and contributed to several large wildfires.

“From a climate perspective, it looks like there won’t be a big change in drier-than-normal conditions in the coming months,” he said.

Much of the western half of the country is in drought, although wet weather conditions in the second half of last year have reduced the severity of conditions in many regions. More heat and drought forecasts mean drought will continue across much of the West.

For most of the Southwest, this means that the prolonged severe drought or mega-drought that began in 2000 will continue into the 23rd year. Scientists examining the past climate in the region study published this week The current mega-drought is currently the driest twenty-year period in at least 1,200 years. His simulations also predicted it will continue this year and possibly longer.

Dr. Drought can also develop in some areas, particularly south-central Arizona and eastern and coastal Texas, Collins said. The situation may improve in most of eastern Washington state.

During La Niña, normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific affect how much energy is put into the atmosphere, which in turn affects the jet stream, the fast-moving airflow high in the atmosphere. In the United States, La Niña usually causes warmer conditions in the southern part of the country, though not always.

Dr. Collins said La Niña is expected to continue through May, and shifting sea surface temperatures to neutral conditions that are neither hotter nor colder in the summer will reduce the atmospheric effect.

According to forecasts, higher-than-normal temperatures are expected in most of the eastern half of the country over the next three months. Wetter-than-normal conditions are expected for the Ohio Valley, and a drought is likely to develop in Florida.

On the contrary snowstorm The month that hit most of the Northeast in late January was drier than average across the region.

The blizzard was what meteorologists call a bomb cyclone; It occurs when a cold air mass collides with a warmer one, causing a very rapid drop in barometric pressure, high winds and heavy snowfall, especially if it occurs along the coast.

That’s what happened on January 28, said climatologist Samantha Borisoff of the Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University. The storm, which formed over warmer-than-normal ocean waters, took in more moisture and resulted in snowfall of 3 feet or more. some places.

While it’s impossible to know for sure at this point, Ms. Borisoff said that global warming may have affected the strength of the storm because the ocean and atmosphere are warming as humans pump greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

A bomb cyclone’s energy is largely dependent on the temperature difference between cold and warm air masses; therefore, an air mass developing over a warmer ocean creates a greater temperature difference with a cold mass developing over land, helping energy. Thunder. As it happens, Ms. Borisoff said parts of the western North Atlantic Ocean are “pretty hot”.

NOAA data showed that globally, January was the sixth warmest month on the modern record, dating back 143 years. Considering La Niña and other factors, forecasters said there is only a 10 percent chance that 2022 will be the warmest year on record. But as in recent years, as the world continues to warm, this year is almost certain to be in the top 10 hottest.