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WASHINGTON — Even as world leaders pledge to take stronger action on this issue climate changeMany countries plan to increase their oil, gas and coal production significantly in the coming decades, potentially undermining these high commitments. A United Nations-sponsored report Published Tuesday.
The report looked at future mining and drilling plans in 15 major fossil fuel producing countries, including the United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Canada, China, India and Norway. Taken together, these countries now plan to produce more than double what would be needed by 2030 if governments wanted to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels.
Scientists and world leaders are increasingly saying that keeping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius is crucial for humanity. wants to avoid the most disastrous consequences of climate changeMore deadly than ever before are heatwaves, large-scale flooding and widespread extinctions. The world has warmed about 1.1 degrees Celsius since the Industrial Revolution.
But the report found that the planned global expansion of fossil fuel extraction sharply conflicted with these climate goals.
If the world continues to be awash with oil, gas and coal for decades to come, then many countries may find it more difficult to switch to cleaner energy sources. At the same time, many of the oil wells and coal mines currently being approved and developed could prove extremely unprofitable if demand for fossil fuels declines, leading to economic disruption.
According to the report, by 2030, the world’s countries plan to produce 240 percent more coal, 57 percent more oil and 71 percent more natural gas than is needed to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
World leaders will meet from 31 October a major United Nations climate summit Two weeks in Glasgow to discuss how they will reduce planetary warming emissions. But environmentalists say governments need to focus on future plans for fossil fuel extraction to align more closely with proposals to sell more electric vehicles or install more renewable energy.
“Governments of the world must take swift and urgent action to close the fossil fuel production gap and ensure a just and equitable transition,” said Inger Andersen, director of the United Nations Environment Programme.
Over the last decade, governments and businesses have slowly begun to shift the global economy away from its long dependence on fossil fuels. Many countries are currently planning significant increases in wind and solar power and are canceling plans for new coal plants. Major automakers such as Ford and General Motors are investing heavily in electric vehicles and are preparing to cut sales of gasoline and diesel-powered cars.
But this is just the beginning. International Energy Agency recently looked what would be needed to keep global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius. All the world’s nations will have to drastically reduce their use of fossil fuels over the next three decades until they stop adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere and achieve essentially “net zero” emissions by 2050.
Under this scenario, the agency said, the nations of the world would not approve the development of any new coal mines or new oil and gas fields beyond what is committed today.
Yet the new report, led by researchers at the Stockholm Environment Institute, warns that many nations are still far from this projected future.
Even if countries like China and the United States expect to reduce coal extraction in the coming decades, this will be offset by new mining plans in places like Australia, India and Russia.
The United States is expected to still see a massive increase in oil and gas production through 2030, the report said. The Biden administration has pledged to pause and reform leasing programs for oil and gas drilling on federal land, but these efforts are up in the courts, though tied.
The report notes that more than half of worldwide fossil fuel production is controlled by state-owned companies, often insulated from market pressures and sometimes legally required to keep production to keep tax revenues flowing. But even countries that depend on private companies for coal mining or oil drilling often pay subsidies that can keep fossil fuel production artificially high.
In practice, it can be difficult for governments to achieve an orderly reduction of fossil fuel production worldwide. Even if the world switches to cleaner energy, there will still be demand for oil and gas during the transition period. Every oil and gas producing country prefers to get as much of this shrinking market share as possible and let others cut back. This dynamic can lead to overproduction worldwide.
Making the task even more difficult, the world is now experiencing a severe energy crisisEurope, Asia and Latin America are facing natural gas shortages this fall to support their renewable energy operations. International Energy Agency recently warned He said nations need to significantly increase their investments in clean energy to tackle these problems, but cuts could also bolster calls for more fossil fuel production. The Chinese government, for example, recently ordered coal companies to increase their mining output. an electricity shortage leading to nationwide blackouts.
To address these challenges, the new report calls for closer international coordination “to ensure that reductions in fossil fuel production are distributed as fairly as possible while minimizing the risks of degradation.”
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