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A four-syllable word has a huge role to play in shaping our climate future.

Infrastructure.

Consider the infrastructure that connects Europe to Russian fuel. It was a 3,500-mile pipeline that started as my colleague Hiroko Tabuchi in 1984 to transport gas from Siberia to West Germany. wrote this week. The CIA warned against this, saying it would create a dangerous dependency on the Soviet Union. American oil companies lobbied for this and prevailed, hoping for a share of the profits.

Now, 40 years later, President Biden suggested the infusion of American gas Helping Europe get rid of Russia’s energy dependency.

It will be hard to deliver, because my colleague Clifford Krauss explained. But the proposal presents a crucial question to lawmakers on both sides of the Atlantic: Will this wartime surge create a next-generation infrastructure that has locked Europe in the gas habit for longer?

stuck in White House announcement One important detail: The United States expects to more than double gas sales to Europe to 50 billion cubic meters “by at least 2030”. That’s a lot of gas.

In the weeks ahead, we expect a fierce jockey with profound repercussions for the world’s ability to avert climate catastrophe.

American supplies would come in the form of liquefied natural gas, and that’s a certain type of fossil fuel. Compared to piped gas, LNG production higher carbon emission levelsthough much less than coal.

Replacing Russian pipe gas with LNG is not a major climate issue right now. The concern is that if new gas pipelines and terminals are built, they will be used for a long time, making it nearly impossible to slow down global warming.

“I am very concerned that our climate targets may be another victim of Russia’s aggression,” said Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, at a meeting of energy ministers from around the world this week in Paris.

Birol said this meeting should be devoted to the discussion of the global energy transition away from fossil fuels. Instead, it was punctuated by discussions about how to increase fossil fuel production to help Europe distance itself from Russian energy. The agency said new oil and gas fields should not be developed By this year if the world is to avert the worst effects of climate change.

The Biden Administration is under additional scrutiny. It failed to enact major climate laws. We’ll keep you informed if it succumbs to pressure to approve new gas production permits or new gas export terminals. New fossil fuel infrastructure projects take years to build, are expensive, and tend to take decades to get used to.

US energy secretary Jennifer Granholm tried to thread a needle. “There is always a concern about building infrastructure that will lock up problems with greenhouse gas emissions,” he said in response to a reporter’s question Thursday at the Paris meeting. “There’s no doubt about it.”

But he stressed that, as has happened since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last month, the administration wants the oil and gas industry to “increase production now and wherever,” even if the oil and gas industry wants to switch to cleaner sources. energy that does not come from fossil fuels.

The European Union has one of the world’s most ambitious climate goals: According to the law, the 27-nation bloc is required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent by 2030. Europe relied on gas to move away from coal and achieve its climate. Targets long before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The largest share of this gas came from Russia.

Now, the European Commission proposes to increase renewable energy sources, reduce energy demand by insulating leaky old buildings, install heat pumps, while trying to reduce Russia’s gas imports. All this could very well accelerate Europe’s transition to clean energy.

In an analysis this week, the Regulatory Assistance Project, one of the European think tanks, suggested that renewable energy could replace two-thirds of Russian gas imports by 2025. The rest can be replaced by other gas from Russia without building new gas infrastructure.

Yet Europe’s quest to immediately abandon Russian gas is a tall order.

Most US gas exports already have buyers under long-term contracts. American export terminals are sending all the gas they can. Some European countries have import terminals that can take more LNG. As the Oxford Energy Research Institute points out in a recent study. Others don’t.

If Europe builds more import terminals to receive liquefied natural gas, it could become dependent on gas for decades to come – and this gas infrastructure could risk becoming dormant assets in 10 to 15 years.

Even before the war, LNG import terminals were being expanded in Belgium and Poland, and a new one was approved in Greece. Since the invasion, Germany has approved two new terminals. recently wrote in this newsletter. Netherlands recently approves a new floating gas import terminal.

Nikos Tsafos, an energy security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington research organization, said that Europe’s replacement of pipe gas from Russia with liquefied gas from elsewhere would hardly affect climate targets.

“There is a fear of being locked out. But in reality, if LNG only replaces Russian gas, the climate impact would be negligible,” he argued. “Europe is determined to phase out gas use, now more than ever before.”

Not so, United States. It is set to become the world’s largest gas exporter this year. Gas producers are optimistic about expanding the market. An industry analyst said Bloomberg He said US gas suppliers should make deals with European buyers as soon as possible.

Claire Healy, head of the Washington office of climate research group E3G, said the US plan to support LNG shipments was “unreasonable” given the need to quickly shut down new oil and gas production to avert the worst effects of climate change. “A short-term energy crisis turned into a long-term crutch for American oil and gas producers,” she said.

essential news

Environmental art: Over the past six months, more than a dozen exhibitions have been held openly opposing climate change. worldwide.

Climate volunteers: A scientist in England sought help replicating three centuries of rainfall records. Thousands of people were locked up, answered the call.

Methane leaks: Surprisingly large quantities of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, are escaping from wells and pipelines in New Mexico. a new analysis.

Putin’s climate ambassador resigns: Anatoly B. Chubais reportedly resigned Protest against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Alert in Australia: Part of the Great Barrier Reef on the east coast of the country was submerged. a sixth mass whitening event.

Before you go: Any questions?

Today, we invite our readers to send us questions. There’s no limit to what you can ask as long as it’s about the climate. Don’t be shy to ask about something you think you should already know – if you’re wondering, others probably do too. Between now and Earth Day, April 22, we will review the messages. Your questions and answers will form the basis of future projects at the Climate table, including this newsletter. You can do post questions here.

Thank you for reading. We’ll be back on Tuesday.

Claire O’Neill and Douglas Alteen contributed to Climate Forward.

Contact us climateforward@nytimes.com. We read every message and reply to many!