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The flood that killed at least 20 people in Tennessee last weekend came with shocking speed and violence – apparently a case study of the challenges of protecting people from explosive rainstorms as climate change worsens.

A closer look at what happened days, years, and even decades before the storm reveals a host of government decisions—where and how to build, when to update flood maps, whether to join the federal flood insurance program, and how to alert. dangerous floods – exposed residents to more flooding than they should have.

Record rainfall exceeding 3 inches per hour on Saturday in Central Tennessee swelled rivers and creeks, destroyed homes, cut off electricity and cell phone service, and destroyed bridges. among the dead The 7-month-old twins are a 15-year-old girl and an army veteran who died after helping his wife and daughter escape.

It’s impossible to say whether any action could have prevented these deaths, especially given the brutality of the flooding. But interviews with climate and disaster experts and a review of state and federal data show how slow governments have been in adapting to the growing threats and failing to take action together that could reduce the damage.

“These extreme weather events will become more intense and more frequent,” said Hiba Baroud, a professor of civil and environmental engineering specializing in resilience at Vanderbilt University in Nashville. “We need to be more proactive and think of ways to prevent or at least reduce the impact of these events.”

Refusing flood insurance

The story of the disaster in Humphreys County, the hardest-hit area in the state, probably begins in the late 1970s, when the federal government began proposing a deal to communities across the country: The government would allow people in those communities to purchase publicly subsidized flood insurance.

Most cities and counties said yes. But not all. Humphreys County, hardest hit by flooding last weekend, declined to participate, show federal records. So did neighboring Houston County, which was hit over the weekend. (Some cities that were hit hardest by the flooding in these counties, like Waverly, are participating in the program.)

A Humphreys County spokesperson said officials could not comment. But, according to Roy Wright, who ran the program until 2018, in general, communities that decide to stay away from the flood insurance program often do so out of aversion to building restrictions.

Failure to participate in a flood insurance program harms communities in several ways, according to Chad Berginnis, executive director of the State Association of Floodplain Managers. This means people can’t buy flood insurance, making it harder to rebuild after a flood. And it prevents people from receiving some form of disaster relief from the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

No building code

As officials in Humphreys County turned down the federal government’s flood insurance offer, they were shaping the county’s future in another way: by refusing to accept residential building rules.

These rules govern how homes should be built to make them more resilient to natural disasters and other hazards. For example, Nashville, displaced by the catastrophic flooding of 2010 thousands of peoplerequires that the ground floors of new homes be built at least four feet above the expected height of a major flood, one of the toughest requirements in the country.

But Humphreys County doesn’t have a building code, despite being just 70 miles west of Nashville and facing a similar threat from flash flooding. status data. So does Houston County, along with three dozen other counties in Tennessee. (As with flood insurance, some cities in these counties have their own codes.)

This difference is possible because of the Tennessee lawmakers’ decision to avoid making rules to local governments. While most states adopt a building ordinance and make that law mandatory for all their cities and counties, Tennessee allows local governments to decide whether to follow state rules or create their own or have none.

“Any standard or code is for the protection of the public,” said Norma Jean Mattei, a former president of the American Society of Civil Engineers and a professor at the University of New Orleans. “Actually it’s all about public safety.”

In Houston County, Mayor James Bridges said he wanted to have a building code. But he said there is not enough tax revenue for staff to administer and enforce these rules.

“With 8,000 people and a very small tax base, we don’t have the money to have all these different departments they have in big cities,” said Mr Bridges. “We need many more”

Flood maps underestimate risk

Because houses were built without a building code in Humphreys County, the county’s ability to prepare for flooding was also affected by a decision in Washington.

FEMA produces maps that show which areas are at risk of flooding so that homeowners, builders and local authorities can make informed decisions about where and how homes should be built. Federal law requires the agency to review flood maps at least once every five years and update them if necessary.

However, the Humphreys County map has not been updated since 2009. FEMA data. Located southeast of Humphreys and also flooded, Hickman County has not updated its map since 2008.

According to calculations by the First Street Foundation, a group of academics and experts, the methodology used by these FEMA maps was not only outdated, but also underestimated the extent of flood risk facing the area. own predictions last year, Realtor.com has been using it to inform home buyers about flood risks.

FEMA’s flood maps show that only 781 properties in Humphreys County are at risk from a so-called 100-year flood, 6.2 percent of all properties. First Street estimates the number to be more than three times that.

In other districts affected by the floods last weekend, the difference is even greater. According to data from First Street, the number of properties threatened by flooding in Hickman County is five times greater than FEMA maps show. In Dickson County, that number is ten times higher.

According to Jeremy Porter, professor and head of research and development at the City University of New York, this difference reflects the fact that FEMA maps look at the threat of flooding from main river channels, but not risks from smaller creeks and tributaries. for First Street. Dr. “All small tributaries and streams that have been drenched by rain runoff are currently unmapped in this area,” Porter said.

FEMA spokesperson Jaclyn Rothenberg said the agency is prioritizing which areas to update first, and it’s up to local authorities to look for new maps. Humphreys County and Hickman County “have not made requests for map updates,” he said. Ms. Rothenberg said the contrasting flood maps developed by FEMA and First Street are “different tools for different uses.”

vague warnings

On the afternoon of Friday, August 20, when weather forecasters in central Tennessee began forecasting heavy rain overnight in Humphreys County, an area with no building codes, no flood insurance, and no old flood maps, one big decision remained: when and what. time? How do I warn people?

At 4:55 p.m., the Nashville office of the National Weather Service asked local TV and radio stations to warn people that, in addition to the heavy rain from the previous few days, that night could bring an extra 2 to 4 inches.

“Higher quantities may be possible” message said. “Be prepared to take action if Flash Flood Warnings are issued.” He did not say what action people should be prepared to take.

At 6:09 am the next morning, the Weather Service began sending alerts directly to mobile phones. The message said “FLASH FLOOD WARNING is in effect for this region”. “Do not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area that is flooded or has been ordered to evacuate.”

But when these first messages started reaching people’s phones, there was little time to react. “They got notifications on their phones at the same time when water came to their door,” said Dale Popp, director of emergency management for Houston County.

According to Sarah Tuneberg, emergency manager who founded a company called Geospiza that helps local governments protect people during disasters, the National Weather Service’s warnings should have gone before the floods started. And these warnings should give people specific instructions on whether to leave their homes, he said.

Krissy Hurley, alert coordinating meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Nashville, said her office decided to warn people to avoid travel when they receive notifications of flooding on the roads. He said the agency hesitated to send warnings too early.

“If you did this before the rain started, people will be really mad at you,” Hurley said.

Ms Hurley said her office does not have the authority to customize the wording in these warnings, and that these are standard messages accepted by the National Weather Service and FEMA.

In McEwan, a town in Humphreys County, Linda Ragsdale saw the warnings. However, as he recalled, the warnings were vague and general, warning that flooding could occur in Middle Tennessee.

Little did she know that she would wait for hours as she crawled into the attic with her dog, her medication, and her cell phone, hearing the groaning and crackling of the wood inside her house.

His son called early Saturday morning to ask if he had water. “You could see puddles in people’s gardens,” he said. “This much.”

He got up around 8:30 in the morning and looked again. The wave was filling his courtyard. He said the water was “quick and fast and I didn’t have time to get to my car.”

Several meters of water ran through his house. It was destroyed. He also lost his car. He said that neither he nor anyone else on the street had flood insurance.

“I don’t know what I could have done,” Miss Ragsdale added. “It just happened so fast. It was so fast.”

Rick Rojas and Jamie McGee contributing reporting.