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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects an “above normal” Atlantic hurricane season this year, the agency said on Tuesday. If that happens, 2022 will be the seventh year in a row with an above-normal season.

NOAA executive Rick Spinrad said at a news conference Tuesday that scientists have calculated a 65 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 25 percent chance for a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance for a below-normal season. season.

Officially running from June 1 to November 30, the season will likely include 14 to 21 named storms, a category that includes all tropical cyclones with speeds of at least 39 miles per hour, although storms may develop outside of this time. Six to 10 of these are expected to reach hurricane strength, which means sustained winds of at least 74 miles per hour. And of that subset, three to six are expected to reach Category 3 or higher, meaning sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour.

NOAAs seasonal forecast for general Atlantic hurricane activity and does not predict how many storms will pass near or over land.

However, Mr Spinrad said, “only one storm is enough to wreak havoc on your home, neighborhood and community.” “Preparation is the key to resilience, and now is the time to prepare for the upcoming hurricane season.”

Several factors informed the predictions, among them La Niña. a wide range of climates In effect since 2020 and affecting many aspects of weather, Including drought in the western United States. La Niña is expected to continue throughout the entire hurricane season, maintaining conditions conducive to hurricane formation.

Another factor is a strong West African monsoon, which favors the development of areas of low atmospheric pressure known as African east waves, where intense storms can form. At the same time, tropical Atlantic trade winds are weaker than average, making it easier for a developing storm to coalesce without being broken up by wind shear. NOAA also expects unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean this summer, and storms are getting stronger as they pass over warm waters.

The classification system NOAA uses—which classifies events of increased intensity as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and Category 1 to Category 5 hurricanes—is based on maximum sustained wind speeds only and does not reflect precipitation volume or intensity.

But precipitation and flooding can often cause more damage from wind, and the destruction can extend far beyond the Southern coastal areas most hit by hurricanes. Early last September, the remnants of Hurricane Ida devastated the New York metropolitan area It had rained more than three inches in an hour, though its winds at that point had dropped well below hurricane strength.

In general, many of the patterns that lead to above-average hurricane seasons and other extreme weather conditions are related to climate change.

Climate change is producing stronger storms and they are shedding more water due to heavy rain and a trend linger and meander; rising seas and slower storms higher and more devastating storm surges. But humans also play a role in making storm damage more expensive. continue to build in vulnerable coastal areas.

“We’re seeing a very dramatic shift in the type of weather events we face as a result of climate change,” said Deanne Criswell, director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, stressing the need for individual preparedness. .

As the season progresses, forecasters will watch the Loop Current, a warm region in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Its location changes from year to year, and smaller currents known as eddies can separate from the main current and bring warmer-than-average water to the north of the Bay.

Matthew Rosencrans, a leading hurricane forecaster with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, said this is not a factor in seasonal forecasting because the effects depend on the geography of individual storms. If a storm’s path doesn’t get in the way of the current, it’s pointless. But storms that cross the Loop Current or an eddy can intensify as quickly and dangerously as Hurricanes Katrina and Rita did in 2005, and this year’s current looks the same as it did in 2005.

“Cycle Current appears to be active this year; “We see hot water being pushed into the Bay,” said Mr. Rosencrans. “If a storm forms and then rises above where the Loop Current is, it can be an explosive source of energy.”