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The war in Ukraine has been good for oil companies.

Look no further than Shell’s first-quarter earnings. It made record profits in the first three months of the year: $9.1 billion, almost three times its first quarter 2021 earnings.

My colleague, Shell, the world’s largest private oil trader, has benefited from high global energy prices and market volatility. Stanley Reed explained. The company’s general manager, Ben van Beurden, took note of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. He said it showed that “safe, reliable and affordable energy simply cannot be accepted.”

The rest of us pay those profits in at least two ways. Gas prices have gone up a lot, which means that the price of everything else that relies on gas to get from point A to point B has gone up a lot – food included. I feel the squeeze at the grocery store.

To put it bluntly, the global economy is built on fossil fuels. Still.

We also pay for the damage done by the burning of oil and gas in the form of atmospheric greenhouse gases that warm the planet and exacerbate extreme weather conditions. Take into account Heatwave in India and Pakistan and Drought in parts of Chile and California. He knows this. You are reading this newsletter.

Shell isn’t the only oil company with a very good first quarter. Exxon Mobil announced $5.48 billion last week, doubling its profits from the previous year. Chevron increased its profits to $6.3 billion. BP’s first-quarter profit of $6.2 billion was the highest in more than a decade. (In a statement, Exxon stated that it does not have the power to set oil and gasoline prices.)

So what do these optimistic gains mean for our future on a climate-changed planet?

1. History proceeds in a jagged line.

This time last year, Big Oil was under extraordinary pressure. in a court The Netherlands, where Shell is headquartered, has told Shell to sharply cut greenhouse gas emissions from all of its global operations by 2030—in fact, to change its core business—for climate reasons. (Shell I said He would fight the verdict. since that time affected headquartered in the Netherlands to England.)

There was also shareholder pressure. Exxon Mobil faced an uprising a small group of activist shareholders pressures the company to move away from fossil fuels faster.

Also last May, the International Energy Agency announced that new oil and gas projects should not be built for the world to neutralize carbon emissions by the middle of the century and slow climate change.

2. The future of Big Oil is still uncertain.

Two things can be true at the same time. This is how the world works.

It is true that the profits of oil companies are increasing rapidly. It is also true that the energy transition away from fossil fuels continues.

Oil companies are in no rush to drill for more oil. Not yet. As my colleague they are cautious Clifford Krauss recently wrote. They fear that prices will not stay high long enough to justify drilling new wells. Many investors prefer to invest their money in clean energy instead. Exxon does not plan to change its drilling strategy based on what Cliff describes as “short-term high demand.”

Chevron doesn’t expect these high oil prices to last forever, either. “There’s a lot of uncertainty,” said CEO Michael Wirth.

3. There is still increasing pressure on Big Oil.

Shareholders are increasingly concerned about climate change. Asset managers, including the world’s largest BlackRock, have set their own climate targets. United States Securities and Exchange Commission It is preparing to issue new rules that force companies to release more data on their climate plans.

In the past few weeks, amid news of oil companies’ profits, there have been new calls for additional taxes. “Anyone wondering why the US and Europe don’t tax unexpected profits?” Former US Secretary of Labor Robert Reich wrote on twitter.

4. Take a look at what these companies will do next.

A big question for me is whether oil companies can pump their profits into the energy transition.

Oil companies are diversifying their portfolios to add renewable energy sources such as wind farms and to invest in carbon capture technologies. But they generally do not shy away from their core business, namely the extraction of fossil fuels.

In a statement to my colleague Manuela Andreoni, Shell said it was changing its business to reduce emissions from its oil operations. Exxon said its future investments will “keep pace with the energy transition.”

Shell spent $2.4 billion, or 13 percent of its investments, on the energy transition last year. In the first quarter of 2022, the company spent $985 million on the energy transition. That’s only one-tenth of first-quarter profit.

Shell’s climate goals include reducing the carbon intensity of its operations; which means it can continue to increase oil production, but with lower emissions per barrel.

Important news from The Times

Not in my backyard: The US will need new infrastructure to meet its climate goals. But the dispute over hydropower on the Canadian border shows that it won’t be easy. build.

‘New computer science’: Tech venture capitalist John Doerr donates $1.1 billion to fund a new climate school at Stanford University.

Visible from Space: Images taken by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite show the destructive power of the sea. forest fires and dust storm.

Uncharismatic carbon sinks: The Times publishes a special series about peatlands. Get started with this article about the efforts of a Scottish billionaire to save them.

floating life: Plastic waste has created huge garbage islands in the ocean. New research shows that now full of sea creatures.

from outside The Times

• Many countries have stopped accepting waste exports from the United States. Now the recycling rate is falling, Reuters reported.

• India’s brutal heatwave has a new victim: mango. The Gaon Connection states that most of the country’s production is exported, hence the low yield. affects several countries.

• The Biden administration has unveiled a plan to address the effects of pollution and other environmental issues on vulnerable communities. According to E&E News.

• The AP tells the story of a remote Indigenous community on Amazon who used social media to pressure the authorities to stop the attack. destruction of their land.

• A nine-inch bat flew from Russia to the French Alps, this record surprised researchers, National Geographic reported.

Before you go: Burning through history

The Times’ national correspondent, Simon Romero, never expected the severe wildfires in northern New Mexico, where he grew up. But a megafire has devastated more than 165,000 acres of the area this year and threatened a centuries-old culture. Firefighting is getting harder and harder strategies this once worked. Many of the people who fled are descendants of Spanish settlers in New Mexico who arrived long before the United States existed as a country. Their communities survived the economic collapses and armies of conquest that burned villages during the Mexican-American war. they hope to overcome this disaster.

Thank you for reading. We’ll be back on Tuesday.

Manuela Andreoni, Claire O’Neill, and Jesse Pesta contributed to Climate Forward.

Contact us climateforward@nytimes.com. We read every message and reply to many!