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ISTANBUL – Global climate summit in Glasgow It was supposed to be a big moment for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He was expected to take the chance to showcase a new embrace of climate issues, and there are few things he loves more than immersing himself on the international stage alongside other world leaders.

But there is nothing he loves less than feeling humiliated. Learning that he can’t have the big security detail in Glasgow – security has become an obsession ever since. A failed coup against him in 2016 – When the American president was let go, he apparently angered Erdogan enough to abruptly cancel it.

Not going to the climate talks known as COP26 may seem self-defeating given its recent green axis, but Mr Erdogan has tried to play on his home base and portray his return as a matter of honor.

“We will never allow our country’s reputation or honor to be tarnished anywhere,” he told reporters on his return flight from Europe. “We showed once again that we can only build a fair world with a fairer approach.”

The unpredictable, combative, politically cunning Erdoğan has been in power for 18 years, knowing which buttons to push. Yet he is politically vulnerable these days, perhaps more so than at any other time in his career.

The president slips in the polls as the economy stumbles. Last month, the lira saw a new low against the dollar. Unemployment among his supporters is rising. Inflation is galloping around 20 percent. Mr. Erdogan is increasingly self-aware, a lively, united opposition.

Determined to win re-election in 2023 to become modern Turkey’s longest-serving monarch, Erdogan is showing growing signs of frustration as his usual tactics fail and voters, especially young people eager for change, become uneasy.

“I think he’s worried and afraid of losing his power, and that seems reasonable even to him for the first time in many years,” said Soner Çağaptay, director of the Turkish research program at the Washington Institute.

“He has been on the job for so long, almost twenty years,” Çağaptay added. “He is suffering from establishment fatigue, too tired to always be at the top of his game and opposition.”

As Erdogan’s hold on power has been shaken, some analysts warn that Turkey’s president may become even more unpredictable as elections draw near.

Sinan Ülgen, Head of the Istanbul Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, said that Erdogan has used foreign policy, especially in the last ten years, as a tool to polish his image in the country.

He in turn insulted foreign leaders, introduced himself as a champion of the Turkish diaspora and Muslims around the world, and reflected Turkey’s military might in a series of interventions abroad, particularly in the past year.

Conducted military operations Syria, Libya, and Azerbaijan and increased tensions with Greece in the Eastern Mediterranean by sending drillships for natural gas exploration.

But he said that since he sacked his son-in-law as finance minister last November, the dire situation in the Turkish economy has caused Mr. Erdogan to soften his stance internationally and turn the rhetoric down.

“The main issue now is to prevent tensions or act in advance so that the economy can recover,” he said.

But Mr. Erdogan has amassed so much power that his whims carry the day and he doesn’t always seem to be able to control himself. Over the past few weeks, he has reverted to his old tactics, ignoring his closest advisers and threatening a diplomatic crisis to his supporters as a show of strength.

When 10 Western ambassadors called for the release of a jailed Turkish philanthropist, Mr. Erdogan accused them of meddling in Turkey’s affairs and threatened to deport them all. Then, just as suddenly, withdrawn.

“He went against his own interests, as well as the best advisers of his most trusted advisers, and that makes me think he is no longer at the top of the game,” Çağaptay said.

The expulsion of the ambassadors, after frenzied diplomacy, is just in time for Erdogan to meet with President Biden on the sidelines of the Group of 20 meeting in Rome, but only after he gets Erdogan to make another fuss over the security protocol in Glasgow. share avoided.

It was another manifestation of the haste that has marked Erdogan’s dealings with the world, risking major disturbances with international partners in a sometimes dubious, increasingly desperate effort to elevate his position at home.

Sensing the political opportunity, Erdogan realized an astonishing climate transformation after years when Turkey stood out as an environmentally backward country.

He changed the name of the ministry of environment to the Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change and gave Mr. Biden a copy of a book on the green revolution, for which he wrote the introduction.

He had allowed the Paris climate agreement to rot, but then had it ratified by Parliament on 6 October and was ready to announce to a meeting of world leaders that Turkey would aim to be carbon neutral by 2053.

“Climate change is a reality and threatens the future of humanity, so Turkey will naturally have a leading role in such a vital issue,” he said in a television speech in Turkey before the COP26 summit.

Mr. Erdogan’s conversion came after Turkey had a rough summer. NS worst wildfires In recorded memory, it burned an area of ​​coastal forest eight times the size of the average annual fires and killed at least eight people. flash flood It killed at least 82 people in the heaviest rains in hundreds of years in the northeast. And slime epidemic Marine life drowning in the Sea of ​​Marmara.

The disasters have given new impetus to support climate action, which has been steadily building in the public, business, civil society and political spectrum over the past year.

Bahadır Kaleağası, president of the French association Institut du Bosphore, which promotes Turkey’s relations with France, said: “All opinion polls show that political parties in Turkey should take this issue very seriously in the upcoming elections.” and Europe.

Eventually, though, the climate summit began to beg. Erdogan apparently benefited more from making a diplomatic fuss over security protocol than addressing the meeting. Or he needed a rest because rumors about his health were floating in the air.

In any case, he had achieved what analysts said he really wanted from the weekend: an hour with Mr. Biden on the sidelines of the Group of 20 meeting, a potential sign of improvement in US-Turkey relations that could lift Turkey’s stance. in international markets.

A meeting with the American president this month “has become the number one issue in Turkey-US relations,” Mr Erdogan said after failing to secure a meeting with Mr. Biden in New York during the United Nations General Assembly in September. Sezer is a political analyst and former trade official.

While the Biden administration continues to crack down on Mr Erdogan on human rights and the rule of law – Turkey was not specifically invited to Mr. Biden’s democracy summit in December – he has made it clear that he views the country as an important NATO ally and strategically. partner.

The US Ambassador to Turkey, David M. Satterfield, said at the reception held by the Mount Whitney command ship abroad, “We may have differences, but we never lose sight of the strategic importance we attach to each other with our partners.” to Istanbul on Wednesday.

However, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, a senior member of the European Council of Foreign Relations, said that the biggest concern of the USA would be to keep the relations with the unpredictable Erdoğan in balance.

This meant reversing President Donald J. Trump’s close, stormy, personal relationship with Erdogan in favor of something a little more distant.

“Ankara is both vulnerable and belligerent at the same time,” he said. “Washington’s way of dealing with this duality is to move away from Turkey.”

“There is a desire to keep it at this stable level for at least another year, but since this is an election year it may not be that easy,” he said.