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The severe drought that afflicts much of the western half of the United States in the spring and summer will continue into at least the late fall, government forecasters said on Thursday.
The outlook for September-November, prepared by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and meteorologists, shows that above-average temperatures are likely across nearly the entire West, with the exception of Washington and parts of Idaho, Montana, and North Dakota.
Precipitation is expected to be below normal from the Southwest to the Rockies and Northern Plains.
Together, this means bad news for the part of the country that has suffered major effects of drought, including dwindling water supplies, stunted crops, barren grasslands and exploding wildfires.
“We expect drought to continue for most of the western United States,” NOAA meteorologist Matthew Rosencrans said during a teleconference with reporters.
According to United States Drought Monitor, Currently, 47 percent of the land area of the 48 contiguous states experiences varying degrees of drought, nearly all in the High Plains or west to west of the Rocky Mountains. The drought affects all nine states, including California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Oregon, and North and South Dakota.
Last month, droughts became less severe in Arizona and New Mexico. Mr Rosencrans said the so-called monsoons helped. These occur during the summer months when atmospheric conditions pull Pacific moisture into the area.
However, NOAA announced that dry, hot conditions elsewhere in the West continued into July. California, Nevada, Oregon and Washington had their hottest July in a 127-year record-keeping period, while five other states, including Utah and Colorado, came close to breaking records.
The drought situation is particularly dire in California, where 49 percent of the state is in the category of the most severe drought. Farmers in the state’s Central Valley have had sharp cuts to their water allocations, wells are drying up in some towns, and several major wildfires are currently underway, including the Dixie Fire, the largest single fire in California history.
About half of Utah, a third of Nevada, and a quarter of Oregon are also in the most severe category.
Mr Rosencrans said drought could develop in northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska over the next three months. The only improvement may be in the western parts of Oregon and Washington.
As for the outlook beyond November, Mr Rosencrans said there’s a better than 50 percent chance that La Niña will develop in the fall and continue through the winter.
In La Niña, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean drop below normal, triggering changes in atmospheric circulation that can affect weather around the world. In the United States, this means warmer and drier conditions in Southern California, the Southwest and Southeast, and cooler and wetter conditions in much of the northern part of the country, although not always.
Overall, NOAA said the 48 contiguous states are experiencing their hottest July 13th ever. By offsetting the western heat, below-average temperatures were recorded in the central plains, parts of the Midwest and Southeast, and northern New England.
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