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Elon Musk gave his latest update on his dreams to send humans to settle on Mars Thursday evening, in an open-air scene in South Texas between screens with polished computer animations and a truly giant glowing rocket behind it.

But while Mr. Musk’s presentation was lively in detailing his vision for humanity’s interplanetary future, he was more cautious about the operational details of the massive mass. SpaceX rocket Starship is at the center of these and other goals. The spacecraft must overcome numerous technical and regulatory hurdles before flying into orbit or, let alone colonize the red planet, fulfill a multi-billion dollar contract to land NASA astronauts on the moon.

But on stage Thursday night, Mr. Musk said he thought Starship could build a self-sufficient city on Mars, which would require taking a million tons of materials from Earth.

“This is the first point in Earth’s 4.5 billion-year history where this has been possible,” said Mr. Musk. “We have to seize the opportunity and do it as quickly as possible. I want to be honest: Civilization feels a little fragile these days.”

After an animated video of an imaginary Mars colony serviced by SpaceX vehicles, Mr. Musk said, “Let’s make it a reality!” yell.

SpaceX has been working on Starship, which will be the most powerful rocket ever, for several years. Also, unlike any previous rocket, it will be completely reusable. This has the potential to drastically reduce the cost of sending payloads into orbit – less than $10 million to take 100 tons into space – and could be possible in a few years, Mr. Musk said.

Over the past few years, SpaceX has conducted a series of test flights on the spacecraft’s upper part, which will go into orbit and then return, demonstrating how it can yaw in the atmosphere and then land. One of the flights in May 2021 was successful others ended with explosions. Reaching orbit requires the use of an even larger booster stage, known as the Super Heavy, with dozens of engines. This has not been tested yet.

But Mr. Musk routinely made schedule forecasts that were too optimistic. When he first mentioned the Mars rocket in 2016 — then an even bigger design — said the first test trip to Mars without humans on board will begin in 2022, and the first humans to Mars will leave two years later.

When Mr Musk gave an update in September 2019predicted that the first orbital flight would take place within six months.

But with 2022 already here, SpaceX has yet to attempt an orbital launch of Starship.

In his speech on Thursday, he expressed confidence that it will happen this year, but remained unclear on the details.

SpaceX’s speech at the site he named Star Base in Boca Chica, Texas, near Brownsville, was mixed with various obscene statements and largely reworked the vision he had described in the past, while also including his arguments for why humanity should expand beyond Earth. A backup plan for humanity’s survival.

He also responded to critics who said space is a waste of time and money, noting how little of the federal budget is actually devoted to spaceflight and exploration.

“I’m just saying we’re going to ask for like half a percent, something like that probably wouldn’t be a problem,” said Mr. Musk, referring to budgeting for space.

He was confused in technical details about the improvements the company made to the next version of the engines used for the Starship. “So the only problem we know is melting the chamber,” said Mr. Musk, describing the intense heat generated by the engine. “It’s hard not to melt the room,” Mr. Musk continued. “This is kind of the last remaining challenge. But I think we are very close to solving it.”

He was hopeful that an environmental review by the Federal Aviation Administration would soon enable SpaceX to proceed to attempt a launch from Boca Chica into orbit. “We got the rough sign that there might be a confirmation in March,” said Mr Musk.

If that happens, an orbital launch attempt could take place in “a few months” or potentially in May, he said.

But the FAA also acknowledged that if it decides a more comprehensive environmental review is necessary, SpaceX will shift launch operations to Kennedy Space Center in Florida, causing a six to eight month delay to replace the launch pad there. gigantic Starship.

In addition to eventual trips to Mars, Starship will be used by NASA to transport astronauts from orbit around the moon to the moon’s surface. The company won a $2.9 billion contract for the task. Outpacing other bidders, including Blue OriginDynetics, the rocket company and defense contractor founded by Jeff Bezos of Amazon. This A paper moon landing planned for 2025but it is expected to be delayed. In addition to working on Starship, the astronauts’ return to the moon, The Space Launch System, another major rocket under development by NASA this is behind schedule.

For the moon mission, SpaceX must be able to recharge a Starship’s propellant tanks while in Earth orbit. Mr Musk said a number of Starship tankers will be launched every few hours, fueling a lunar rocket.

Mr. Musk said he sees no conflict between NASA’s work and his bigger dreams.

“We’re going to make a lot of ships, a lot of boosters,” he said. “Adding feet to the moon can be done pretty quickly.”

And Mr. Musk was confident his giant rocket would work. “We’ll handle it,” he said, even though there were likely bumps in the road.