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JERUSALEM — Last spring, Israel’s extraordinary rapid vaccination campaign was seen as a global model. Coronavirus infections plummeted, the electronic pass allowed the vaccinated to attend indoor concerts and sporting events, and distance rules and mask mandates were eventually shelved.

Israel gave hope to the world way out of the pandemic.

Now.

A fourth wave of infections is fast approaching the levels of Israel’s worst days of the pandemic last winter. The daily rate of confirmed new virus cases has more than doubled in the past two weeks, making Israel a rising hotspot. international charts.

Restrictions on gatherings, commercial and entertainment venues were reinstated this week, and the government is considering a new curfew.

Israel’s coronavirus commissioner, Prof. “I believe we are at war,” Salman Zarka told a parliamentary committee on Wednesday.

Scholars are still assessing how Israel’s response to the pandemic has fallen from a shining example to a cautionary tale, and the stunning comeback provided a crucial test for Israel’s new prime minister, Naftali Bennett, who is claiming leadership based in part on the strength of his own manifesto: “How? To Beat a Pandemic.”

However, some experts fear that Israel’s high infection rate among early vaccine recipients may indicate that over time vaccine protections are waning; this is a finding that contributes to the US decision on Wednesday to start delivering booster shots Starting next month for Americans.

The vaccine may be less effective at preventing infection with the highly contagious Delta variant, which is currently the primary version of the virus in Israel. And the first group to be vaccinated was an older group whose immune systems may have been weaker to begin with.

By June, Israelis, convinced that the worst was over, abandoned social distancing and other measures.

The chairman of the panel of experts advising the Israeli government on the Covid response, Prof. “Everyone tried to leave behind the memory of a very difficult year and a half,” said Ran Balicer.

“Back then,” he said, “the paradigm for many was that Israel was the most vaccinated country in the world, vaccinated people were rarely infected, even more rarely seriously ill, and basically very was close. It wasn’t a mistake.”

He said the problem is that what was true for the original virus “is not necessarily true for future variants coupled with reduced immunity.”

The vast majority of Israel’s elderly population had received two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine by the end of February, and approximately 78 percent of the population aged 12 and over are now fully vaccinated.

Although some Israeli data suggest the possibility of an increased risk of serious illness among those vaccinated early, the vaccine is still believed to help prevent serious illness in those who are infected. The death toll in Israel climbed last month as the infection rate rose.

Seeing infection levels drop in the spring and determined to restart the economy, Israel retired its electronic transit system, eased travel bans, and lifted all other restrictions. The last time there was a closed mask requirement on June 15.

But days ago, a family had returned from a Greek vacation to downtown Modiin, a middle-class suburban hub between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. According to mayor Haim Bibas, more than 90 percent of its residents aged 12 and over are vaccinated, making it one of Israel’s most vaccinated cities.

However, there was one child in the family who was too young to be vaccinated and who, according to the regulations at the time, had to stay in home quarantine for at least 10 days for a negative PCR test.

Instead, the parents sent the boy to school. Eventually, about 80 students became infected with the Delta variant.

“The criminal wasn’t the kid,” said Mr. Bibas, implicitly pointing his finger at the parents.

A second outbreak occurred almost simultaneously at a school in the north in similar circumstances.

The Delta variant has since taken over in Israel and now comes mainly from within the country.

Professor Balicer had warned In May, despite early success, Israel’s pandemic was not over. There was a continued risk of variants that might be more resistant to the vaccine. Of a population of nine million, nearly one million eligible Israelis have so far chosen not to be vaccinated. And among those who were fully vaccinated, Israeli scientists found growing evidence of decreased immunity, particularly among the elderly population who were first vaccinated.

Data released by the Israeli Ministry of Health in late July Pfizer suggested its vaccine was only 39 percent effective at preventing infection In the country in late June and early July, compared with 95 percent from January to early April. However, in both periods, the vaccine was more than 90 percent effective at preventing serious illness.

Experts warn that these early assessments were not scientifically proven: The low number of cases involved, Israel’s testing policies and a host of other biases could skew the results.

Still, as summer approached, infections began to spiral out. School was off, families filled local hotels, and up to 40,000 people a day were flying abroad, even as the Delta variant was spreading rapidly around the world. After zero Covid deaths for days in June, at least 230 Israelis have died so far this month.

Unlike the previous epicenter of infection in Israel’s crowded, less-vaccinated ultra-Orthodox communities, this scourge has manifested primarily in well-vaccinated, middle-class suburbs.

Some experts accused the new government of being slow to respond.

The resurgence of the epidemic coincided with the sworn in of Mr. Bennett’s government in mid-June. After three curfews in Israel, Mr. Bennett came up with a new approach and decided that the country had to live with the virus and keep the business operating at full capacity. He called the policy “soft suppression”.

Mask requirement indoors was reinstated on June 25, but compliance was lax. Alarmed, medical professionals began to take stricter measures, including restrictions on all meetings. The government advisory panel called twice, in July and on 1 August, for the immediate reinstatement of the electronic Green Pass system.

A public health expert and advisory board member, Prof. “In just the last two weeks, the sense of urgency has returned,” Nadav Davidovitch said. “We were supposed to do in July what we’re doing now.”

But after the early enthusiasm of spring, virus fatigue made it difficult to go back to strict antivirus protocols.

Head of the Infectious Diseases Unit and Laboratories at Sheba Medical Center near Tel Aviv, Prof. “It’s a matter of discipline,” Galia Rahav said. “People are tired of masks. They want to live.”

Authorities worry that many Israelis are still unaware of the looming danger.

“The Israeli people have not yet realized that we are in a fourth, important wave,” said Tomer Lotan, director general of the Ministry of Public Safety responsible for enforcement. “We are still in routine mode with the feeling that we are vaccinated. It’s very difficult to switch in public discourse and say, ‘Listen, we’re in a disaster’.”

Israel is now pinning its hopes on reinforcements. More than one million citizens, starting with age 60 and over and rapidly increasing to age 50 and older, received a third dose this month. Israeli researchers say there are preliminary signs that new infections may occur among vaccinated older people. started to fall.

A preliminary study published Wednesday by Maccabi, an Israeli healthcare provider, found that one booster shot of the Pfizer vaccine provided 86 percent efficacy against infection in people over 60 years of age, a week or more after receiving the third dose.

A global discussion horny on boosters. The Biden administration announced on Wednesday that Americans who receive the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines will be able to receive booster vaccines eight months after receiving their second dose.

But the World Health Organization claims that existing vaccines will be better used to vaccinate high-risk people in poor countries where too few people are vaccinated and new variants may emerge.

Most Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza remain unvaccinated after Palestinian authorities rejected the vaccine exchange deal with Israel in June

Israeli public health expert Professor Davidovitch was shot for the third time. But he is now convinced of the necessity of a multi-layered strategy, including measures to wear masks, limit access to public spaces by those who have been vaccinated or recovering from the virus, and strengthen the health system.

“The vaccines are supposed to solve everything,” he said. “We now realize that vaccines are not enough.”