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WASHINGTON – After losing at the center of the climate agenda Just a week before heading to a major global warming summit, President Biden plans to propose that the United States has a new plan that will still fulfill its ambitions to drastically reduce planet-warming greenhouse gases.

The administration’s strategy currently consists of a three-pronged approach, consisting of generous tax incentives for wind, solar and other clean energy, tough regulations to limit pollution from power plants and automobile tailpipes, and a set of clean energy laws enacted by governments.

A Analysis published this week by the Rhodium GroupAn unbiased analysis firm found that the strategy could technically meet Mr Biden’s ambitious commitment to reduce the nation’s emissions by 50 percent of 2005 levels by 2030. The United States has historically been the largest source of planet-warming pollution.

But the chances of success are slim; The approach faces significant legal, logistical and political challenges. The process of drafting the regulations can take years, and the conservative-leaning Supreme Court can override them, or a future president can simply roll them back. And relying on states to strengthen clean energy laws is shifting the fight to state houses for environmentalists and fossil fuel interests to fight at the local level.

“The mix of tax credits, new federal regulations, and new state action makes the goal achievable. But there are too many ifs, says John Larsen, author of the Rhodium analysis. “You need governments to raise the stakes on clean energy at a level they haven’t done yet. You need the Environmental Protection Agency to regulate every power plant in America in a way they haven’t yet. And then you have to hope the Supreme Court doesn’t reject it. Everything has to be broken in the right way.”

The White House fell back on the plan after hopes of significantly reducing emissions. clean electricity programwas blocked by West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin III, a crucial vote in an evenly divided Senate.

The clean electricity program would quickly clean up the electricity sector by rewarding power plants that switched from burning coal, oil and gas to wind, solar, nuclear and other clean energy, and punishing those who didn’t. It was aimed to force the country’s electricity sector to generate 80 percent of its power from clean energy sources by 2030, up from the current 40 percent.

Mr Manchin, who has financial ties to the coal industry The government also said that it is against any measure that would harm natural gas producing, coal and gas companies.

A great scientific report A statement released in August concluded that countries must immediately stop using fossil fuels to avoid a future of severe drought, intense heat waves, water shortages, devastating storms, rising seas and ecosystem collapse.

Wiping out the clean electricity program from a massive budget bill negotiated on Capitol Hill weakened the hand of Mr. Biden, who will arrive in Glasgow on 1 November for an important UN summit he hopes to re-establish. American leadership in the fight against climate change.

Speaking at CNN Town Hall on Thursday night, Mr Biden, upon his arrival in Scotland, said: “I am making a commitment to the world that we will actually achieve net zero emissions and net zero emissions on electric power by 2035. By 2050 or before, but we have to do a lot between now and 2030 to show what we’re going to do to get there.”

Biden, who will accompany the President in Scotland, in addition to a significant portion of his Cabinet. Top climate change advisers are John Kerry and Gina McCarthy, both veterans of the Obama administration. During this administration, Mr. Kerry and Ms. McCarthy went to several international climate negotiations where Mr. Kerry promised to pass a harsh climate law, which the United States never did, and Ms. McCarthy detailed the strict pollution rules governing chimneys. power plants that went into effect but were later reclaimed by the Trump administration.

It looks like Mr Biden will present his Plan B to a skeptical audience in Glasgow.

“Biden was strong in what he said about climate change,” said Laurence Tubiana, France’s former climate change ambassador and now CEO of the European Climate Foundation. “But reliability is an issue. There will still be a question mark – how can he deliver?”

Still, Mr. Biden appears ready to implement one of the three major carbon dioxide reduction policies.

The broad spending bill before Congress includes nearly $300 billion in tax incentives for producers and buyers of wind, solar and nuclear power, and consumers who buy electric vehicles. The tax incentives will remain in place for ten years – a change from existing clean energy tax credit programs that usually expire after one to five years, although they are often renewed. It also includes $13.5 billion to build charging stations for electric vehicles and promote the electrification of heavy-duty vehicles. It would spend $9 billion to update the electrical grid, make it more convenient to transmit wind and solar power, and spend $17.5 billion to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from federal buildings and vehicles.

This package will be the largest federal expenditure to promote clean energy, and Rhodium analysis found it could reduce pollution enough to meet one-third to half of Mr. Biden’s emissions reduction targets and cut carbon dioxide emissions by 25 percent. 2005 levels by 2030.

Oregon Democrat Ron Wyden, who chairs the Senate Finance Committee, is the lead author of this clean energy tax credit package. If the law is passed before the Glasgow summit ends on November 14, Mr Wyden said he will fly to Scotland to deliver the message that the United States has passed a law that will take a big bite out of carbon dioxide emissions.

Wyden said in an interview that although he acknowledged the bar was low, “The President will be able to say that this is the most far-reaching climate bill ever enacted by Congress”: The United States has never passed a major climate bill. change the law.

“This is the first tax revision to actually link cash incentives to reducing emissions, and he says, the more you reduce emissions, the bigger your savings.” said Mr Wyden. We think there will be an extraordinary increase in renewable resources and clean transportation.”

Rhodium analyst Mr. Larsen agreed. “The US has never had this basis for long-term clean energy tax credits before,” he said. “This will give electric power utilities, automakers and builders a certainty they’ve never had before.”

“But they can’t get you to the president’s goal on their own,” he said.

For this, the Rhodium analysis finds that the Environmental Protection Agency must issue a set of tough regulations to address the country’s three main greenhouse pollutants: cars, power plants and oil and gas wells leaking methane, a powerful heat-trapping gas.

While running the EPA under President Barack Obama, Ms. McCarthy helped create the most ambitious climate guidelines the United States has ever seen, aimed at curbing pollution from these three sources of pollution.

None of these remain in place today. The Supreme Court suspended Ms McCarthy’s rule to cut pollution from coal-fired power plants, and The Trump administration got the rest back.

“There was a lot of support and faith in the Obama administration when he made these arrangements,” said Joseph Aldy, who served as one of Mr. Obama’s negotiators at a key climate summit in Copenhagen in 2009. “But now there will be skeptics who say, ‘We are worried that the next administration will undo what has been done. The question is, how long will this last legally and politically?”

On this question comes the shadow of Mr. Trump, who enjoys dismantling Mr. Obama’s climate policies. The fossil fuel industry will almost certainly challenge new environmental regulations, which could get in the way of a Supreme Court with a conservative majority, including three judges appointed by Mr Trump. The former president also appears to be weighing another nomination for the White House in 2024.

Mr Larsen said government action that is not dependent on the person sitting in the White House is an important part of the national emissions strategy.

Already 29 states have enacted their own versions of the clean electricity program that Mr. Biden hopes to implement for the entire country. Several states, led by California, have updated these laws to make them more assertive. If many or most of these states pass laws designed to produce all their electricity from zero carbon sources by 2035 – the same goal set nationally by Mr. Biden – that could significantly reduce the country’s carbon footprint.

Mr. Larsen, a Newly passed law in Illinois It will phase out coal and gas-fired electricity by 2050.

But the continued passage of such laws also depends on the structure of state houses – and some states with the most abundant renewable resources also have strong political opposition to such policies.

“If my state, Sunshine State, had a clean energy standard, the entire United States would be far ahead of us in meeting our clean energy goals,” said Kathy Castor, a Florida Democrat who chairs the House Climate Choice Committee. Crisis. “But the electrical utilities industry in my state is against it.”

“Still, the Democrats will keep pushing,” said Miss Castor. “We’ll do as much as we can,” he said, “then we’ll wake up and do more.”