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Dr. Byerley suggested to her mother-in-law to imagine that for every 10 times she used the bathroom on a given day, one died. She remembered her mother-in-law saying, “Oh, 10 percent is terrible.”
Dr. Byerley’s estimates showed, for example, that the average 40-year-old who was vaccinated more than six months ago faces roughly the same chance of being hospitalized after the infection as someone dies in a car crash over the course of 170 cross-country. Road trips. (Newer vaccine shots provide better protection than older ones, complicating these estimates.)
The risks are higher for people who are immunocompromised. Dr. Byerley’s estimates, a 61-year-old unvaccinated person with an organ transplant is three times more likely to die from infection than within five years of receiving a diagnosis of stage one breast cancer. And this transplant recipient is twice as likely to die from COVID than die climbing Mount Everest.
D., an emergency room physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston. Jeremy Faust set out last month with the most vulnerable people in mind. determine how low the cases will fall for people to stop masking indoors without endangering those with extremely weakened immune systems.
He imagined a hypothetical person who didn’t benefit from vaccines, wore a good mask, took hard-to-take preventive medicine, attended occasional meetings, shopped, but did not work in person. It focused on keeping the chance of vulnerable people infected to less than 1 percent over a four-month period.
It found that to reach that threshold, the country had to continue to mask indoors until transmission fell below 50 cases per 100,000 people per week – a stricter limit than the CDC currently uses, but still offers a benchmark to target.
Dr. “If you just say, ‘We’ll take off the masks when things get better,’ I hope it’s true—but that doesn’t really help because people don’t know what ‘better’ means,” Faust said.
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