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Aviation is an industry that is very difficult to decarbonize. Strict operational and security requirements limit what technology can be used. An aircraft built today will continue to fly in 2050, as the equipment has a long lifespan. This means that technical progress must happen quickly to achieve a reduction in emissions decades later.

“If you want to decarbonize aviation, you have to start now,” he says. Lynnette DrayPrincipal research fellow at University College London.

Keeping emissions low enough to stay below 2°C of warming means reducing aviation’s annual emissions by 2050 to about half of currently projected levels – a daunting task for an industry expected to grow rapidly over the next few decades. He says that for the industry to meet this goal, its emissions must peak and begin to decline by 2030. Brandon Graver, one of the report authors and a senior aeronautical researcher at ICCT. To further limit warming to 1.75 °C, emissions will need to start falling by 2025.

In the ICCT analysis, it is estimated that about 60% of the emission reductions will come from low carbon fuels.

But new fuels still have a long way to go to achieve such an effect. Alternative jet fuel supply represents approximately 0.05% of total fuel supply in 2020. 2018 numbersA full year’s supply of non-fossil fuels will power global aviation for about 10 minutes.

To keep up with demand in 2050, even the most conservative estimate, the supply of alternative fuels will need to increase by about 3,000 times over 2020 levels.

The few commercial alternative fuels produced today are largely derived from waste oils, oils and greases. But the supply of these waste oils is limited, so more fuel will need to come from other sources.