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An emergency room physician at Brown University, Dr. “Overall, people who come in with Covid are much less sick than this winter,” said Megan Ranney. “It almost feels like a different disease to people, except for those who are really old, unvaccinated, or immunocompromised.”

Inequalities in access to supportive vaccines and antiviral pills also put some Americans at higher risk. Black and Hispanic people eligible for boosters received the shots at lower rates This reflects what some epidemiologists describe as limited efforts in some states to provide easy access to boosters. Patients who do not have a primary care doctor or live far from pharmacies may also have trouble taking antiviral pills.

Epidemiologists said the number of hospitalized Covid patients was still rising nationally, and that increases in deaths would likely increase gradually. It’s unclear how hard the wave will hit less vaccinated areas like the South, where immunity from past infections has also increased.

“Unfortunately, vaccination rates in many southern states are among the lowest in the country,” said Jason Salemi, professor of epidemiology at the University of South Florida. “But there’s definitely a lot of immunity built up through previous infection.”

Even if fewer cases were fatal, the unprecedented number of infections this winter and spring have created significant problems of their own. In the United States, one in five adults under the age of 65 who survived Covid has dealt with a long-term version of Covid, last study found. Many people missed their jobs this spring, including doctors whose absences periodically strain hospitals that are already staffed.

Stanford’s Dr. Karan said that with Covid in January, he had symptoms that continued until April. A month later he became infected again. He said that as of last week, with the sub-variable surge hitting California, his team of five doctors at one of the hospitals he worked had dropped to two due to Covid absences, delaying consultations for some patients.