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One day, astronomers may detect an asteroid months away from a disastrous rendezvous with Earth. Our only chance of surviving at such a late stage would be to try using a nuclear explosive to destroy it.

But would it work?

Unlike some of the melodramatic Hollywood blockbusters of the 1990s, real-life scientists are largely uninterested by any planet-sanctioning giants. The orbits of nearly every asteroid two-thirds of a mile or larger have been precisely mapped. “We know they won’t be a threat anytime soon,” he said. Megan Bruck SyalA planetary defense researcher at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Dr.

Instead, their focus is on relatively small asteroids, those about the size of football stadiums, notable for their abundance and ability to evade asteroid-hunting observatories. Dr. “These are issues we’re more worried about as they might pop up out of nowhere,” said Bruck Syal.

Such a tiny asteroid might not seem like much of a threat compared to the 6.2-mile giant that crashed into Earth 66 million years ago. apocalyptic consequences. But a meteor exploded in Siberia in 1908 it was only about 200 feet wide – and the shock wave of the explosion flattened 800 square miles of forest. Dr. “This is the size of the entire Washington DC metro area,” Bruck Syal said.

Scientists reported in a study using high-quality simulations published earlier this month If a 330-foot-long stealth asteroid were attacked at least two months before impact, 99.9 percent of its mass could be ejected from Earth’s path and destroyed by a one-megaton nuclear device.

Ideally, asteroids targeting our blue marble can be detected decades in advance. If so, the hope is that an uncrewed spacecraft slams into them with enough acceleration to pull them out of Earth’s path. This strategy, known as deflectiongets its first test next year with NASA Double Asteroid Redirect Test (DART) space mission.

But an asteroid several years away from Earth may not be suitable for deflection. At this stage, it may be too late to change its trajectory enough with a nudge. And if any attempt to diverge proves to be overly enthusiastic, the asteroid could shatter into smaller but still hunks that could hit Earth at multiple points.

Using a nuclear explosion to destroy an interplanetary interventionist “will always be a last resort,” he said. Patrick Michel, an asteroid expert not involved in the work at the Observatoire de la Côte d’Azur. But if our time is limited, it may be our only hope.

a team led by Patrick KingA physicist at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, he ran 3-D simulations to see if a nuclear bomb could provide planetary salvation. like a wannabe Marco Inaros, a bad guy science fiction series “The Expanse” The person who planned to bombard the Earth from space launched virtual asteroids 330 meters into our planet along five different orbital paths.

Powerful megaton nuclear devices were sent to meet them.

The simulations showed that when the explosion occurred two months or more before the predicted impact date, it was enough to make nearly every surviving asteroid fragment miss Earth. Co-author of the study, Dr. Any piece that reaches Earth will likely be small enough to burn up in the atmosphere, Bruck Syal said.

This strategy not perfect. Dr. “If you miscalculate the energy you need to destroy it, you can create too many fragments,” said Michel, and some of them may be large enough to affect Earth with considerable violence.

Nobody wants to wait until the last moment to see if a nuclear Hail Mary will save the world. But one day humanity may be left with no other choice: NASA, 17,000 near-Earth asteroids 460 feet or greater that has not yet been found.

To reduce the likelihood of an asteroid haze, scientists are being proactive. A future NASA space telescope It aims to detect two-thirds of these miniature threats. His promising success, perhaps more than anyone else, will come as a relief to planetary defenders. I do not want to miss anything.