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Written by my colleague Abdi Latif Dahir. scary article In 2022, no one should have to write: Children starving in Somalia. War and political instability come with forecasts for rising food and fertilizer prices and a below-average rainy season for the fifth consecutive year. About half of the country’s estimated 16 million people do not have enough food.
Abdi met a man named Adan Diyad in the children’s ward of a hospital. Diyad had abandoned his fields after the nearest river had dried up. No food, no money. His 4-year-old was so malnourished that he could barely keep his eyes open. While she was carrying her child to the medical center, Diyad continued to “listen to her son’s heartbeat to make sure he didn’t die.”
What does climate change have to do with this dire situation? Maybe nothing. Scientists don’t know yet.
Last year, many aid groups mistakenly blamed climate change for the drought in Madagascar. When a team of attribution scientists looked at the data, they concluded that warming played a negligible role. Coworker Raymond wrote about Zhong: IT.
Regardless of whether a particular extreme weather event is linked to anthropogenic climate change, the common denominator is human suffering. In the age of extreme weather, knowing how to relieve this pain is essential. This is what I wanted to understand better. So I reached out to Abdi and Ray.
Somin: Ray, is this drought in Somalia linked to climate change? Scientists tell me there isn’t enough rainfall data for a long enough period of time to make that determination, in part because of conflict.
Ray: There has been no clear direction of change in drought occurrence in the Horn of Africa since the 1950s, according to the latest and best research reviewed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
However, scientists expect the frequency, duration and intensity of droughts in the region to increase if global warming reaches higher levels. The warmer atmosphere means the land is drier and remains drier. There will be larger fluctuations in precipitation. So even if this drought wasn’t made more likely or more intense by global warming, future ones could easily happen.
somin: Even when it rains, the soil’s ability to absorb moisture is “destroyed”, said Lisa Thalheimer, a postdoctoral researcher at Princeton who studies the combined effects of drought and conflict in Somalia. In fact, it was very difficult for the land or people to return after long, successive droughts, she said.
Why is it harder to link droughts to climate change than extreme heat?
Ray: Drought is the result of several factors: high temperatures, lack of precipitation, and complex interactions between the atmosphere and land. Droughts can last for months or years. That’s why scientists need more and better weather data to compare with past extremes.
somin: I see more climate attribution studies for countries in the global north than for countries in the global south. Why? Why?
Ray: First, there is the scarcity of data. Many developing countries may have fewer weather stations, or weather stations have only started keeping records in recent years.
Then there’s expertise. Currently, climate scientists disproportionately tend to live and work in the rich world.
As a result, people in poor countries have less scientific evidence to make important decisions, for example, should I protect my house from flooding or should I get insurance? Do I need better irrigation for my fields or backup water sources? Should I pack up and go?
somin: Some are costly. Attribution studies can also inform policy-level changes. like better early warning systems. Different agricultural policies to predict a drier future or a wetter future. Job training to enable farmers and shepherds to do things differently.
Abdi: Local political conditions are important. The harsh political atmosphere in Somalia over the past four years has meant that the government has not focused on improving security, let alone ensuring communities survive the last drought in 2017.
Whenever such a crisis occurs, donors spend cash to provide emergency food and water. Meanwhile, there is less money to prepare for the next crisis, including things like monitoring water resources, improving land management, protecting livestock, reforestation.
somin: What can save lives?
Abdi: Cash along with water and medical care. Charities provide funds to those affected on mobile money platforms.
there Somalia Humanitarian FundIt is run by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. save the children It provides water, food and also school for young children. Corps of Mercy and CARE Work with local traders and farmers on long-term resilience to climate shocks such as drought.
There are important local organizations. Aamin Ambulance It offers the only free ambulance service in Mogadishu and carries some of the malnourished children. (Lately Wrote about the founder.) sokaab raises money for basic infrastructure projects. apple peace provides vocational training skills and reintegrates child soldiers.
somin: These all seem like useful strategies for many places dealing with extreme weather, whether related to climate change or not.
Ray: Strengthening food infrastructure and emergency support systems today will almost certainly save lives in the future.
Abdi: Many experts I spoke to said the world should respond to the early warning signs of last year’s drought rather than wait until a famine is declared.
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Extreme heat and human health: Researchers are investigating how life on a warmer planet might be loaded into our bodies. One of the goals: to understand How to protect the most vulnerable.
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Sustainable investment: U.S. regulators are stepping up scrutiny of environmental, social and governance funds. An investigation was said Focus on Goldman Sachs.
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from outside The Times
Before you go: The secret lives of New York dolphins
Scientists are baffled. Why are dolphins more common around New York City, the United States’ most developed coastline? To investigate, a group of scientists is using underwater microphones and recording devices to listen to the sound waves they use to communicate for clues. The investigation revealed the dolphins’ favorite hunting spots in New York, but scientists are still searching for answers. climate change it might have something to do with it.
Thank you for reading. We’ll be back on Friday.
Manuela Andreoni, Claire O’Neill, and Douglas Alteen contributed to Climate Forward.
Contact us climateforward@nytimes.com. We read every message and reply to many!
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