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Russia’s Recognition of two separatist zones in eastern Ukraine It could threaten significant investments by Western oil giants and push global energy prices higher in the next few weeks.

Since the end of the Cold War, Russia’s energy-based economy has been intertwined with that of Europe. European energy companies such as BP, TotalEnergies and Shell have large operations and investments in Russia. While the expansion of these holdings was largely halted after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, they remain important profit centers and may now be at risk.

Trying to isolate Russian President Vladimir V. Putin, President Biden and the European Union imposed new sanctions On Tuesday about the Russian government and the country’s political and business elite. The measures do not directly target the energy sector. Therefore, oil and gas prices rose only slightly in New York on Tuesday afternoon.

But analysts said the energy industry could still suffer if the crisis continues, especially if Putin decides to send troops to the rest of Ukraine or tries to take control of the capital, Kiev. Such aggressive actions will likely force Mr. Biden and other Western leaders to step up their response.

European leaders are already targeting some Russian energy exports. Germany will halt certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which is expected to carry Russian gas, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Tuesday. The decision will not have an immediate impact on European energy supplies, as the pipeline is not yet operational. But Russia’s gas shipments through Ukraine could be stopped, especially if Putin’s troops move into Ukraine or cut off gas to Europe in retaliation for Western sanctions.

Russia supplies one out of every 10 barrels of oil used in the world. Oil prices jumped early Tuesday to nearly $100, the highest in more than seven years before moderating after Western officials said Russian troops had entered separatist-held areas of eastern Ukraine.

Energy experts say oil prices could easily rise another $20 a barrel if Putin tries to invade all or more of Ukraine. Such an outcome would also cause major problems for Western oil companies doing business in Russia.

“In this environment, the legal and reputational risk facing Western energy companies operating in Russia will increase sharply,” said Robert McNally, energy adviser to President George W. Bush and now chairman of Rapidan Energy Group, a consulting firm. . company. “For oil markets, this means slower supply growth and even tighter global balances and higher prices in the coming years.”

Headquartered near Paris, TotalEnergies owns about 20 percent of Novatek, Russia’s largest liquefied natural gas company, and Shell has a strategic alliance with Russia’s natural gas monopoly Gazprom.

The most heavily involved Western oil company in Russia is BP, which owns about 20 percent of the state-controlled energy company Rosneft, led by Igor Sechin, widely regarded as a close ally and adviser to Putin. BP’s CEO, Bernard Looney, and former CEO, Bob Dudley, sit on Rosneft’s board of directors with Mr. Sechin and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

Rosneft delivered $2.4 billion in profits and $600 million in dividends to BP in 2021 and has a secondary listing on the London Stock Exchange. About a third of BP’s oil production, or 1.1 million barrels per day, came from Russia last year.

BP executives have stated that they have been calm so far. “We’ve been there for over 30 years and it’s our job to focus on our business and that’s what we do,” Mr. Looney said in a recent conference call with analysts. “If anything gets in the way, then we’ll deal with it as it comes.”

Most oil companies report bumper profits due to rising oil and gas prices. European firms use some of their profits to invest more in wind, solar, hydrogen and other forms of clean energy. But the current crisis can be a huge distraction, if not worse.

Doing business in Russia has always been complicated, especially with Mr. Putin reasserting state control over energy and squeezing private investors.

In 2006, Shell was forced to relinquish control of its leading liquefied natural gas project on Russia’s eastern Sakhalin Island to Gazprom. Shell owns a modest stake in the facility and apparently wants to keep the door open for more business. In Russia. Along with four other European companies, he helped finance the estimated $11 billion Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany.

TotalEnergies continued to invest in a Novatek-controlled $27 billion natural gas complex on the Yamal Peninsula in the Arctic. The project circumvented previous Western sanctions by obtaining financing from Chinese banks. In 2017, it started producing gas for European and Asian customers.

Share prices of BP and Total fell more than 2 percent on Tuesday, and Shell fell nearly 1 percent.

The prospects of Western oil companies looking to do business in Russia were once much brighter. Exxon Mobil, Italy’s ENI, and other foreign oil companies teamed up with Rosneft to explore Arctic oil and gas fields in 2012 and 2013.

But US and European Union sanctions after Russia’s capture of Crimea have forced many Western companies to halt expansion in Russia, in part by limiting access to funding and technology for deep-water exploration.

Exxon officially abandoned its exploration ventures with Rosneft in 2018 and took a $200 million post-tax loss.

Tougher and broader sanctions could come, said Ben Cahill, an energy analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

“The possible new sanctions will try to prevent Russia from entering areas such as hydrogen that are part of its long-term diversification,” he said. The sanctions could make life difficult for foreign companies like BP and Shell if they target the oilfield services industry and block the equipment they need for operations in Russia.”

Russia is the world’s third largest oil producer and second largest natural gas producer. Therefore, any crisis involving it is doomed to upset energy markets and the global economy.

Along with Russia, Europe will also feel the weight of the pain. About 30 percent of Europe’s gas supplies come from Russia at a time when reserves are small and prices are high. Half of Russia’s 5 million barrels of oil exports per day goes to Europe. The much more modest 700,000 barrels per day goes to the United States.

But energy experts say the crisis will be worse about 20 years ago, before the US releases large amounts of oil and gas from fracking of the shale. Russia’s invasion of Crimea has also spurred Europe to build several large terminals it needs to import more liquefied natural gas, and many more are planned as American energy companies build terminals to export more gas.

“This year the crisis isn’t as bad as it could be,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, an energy expert at Tufts University’s Fletcher School.

He added that Putin’s aggressive moves in Ukraine could backfire, eroding Russia’s importance as an energy supplier to Europe. “We will see more of these steps and policies and an increase in renewable energy,” he said.

Still, European gas prices are nearly four times higher than they were a year ago, forcing consumers and businesses to pay more for electricity and heat. And the prospect of taking advantage of Russia’s vast energy resources becomes less likely with each escalation.

“It’s hard to imagine that any Western company would be allowed to conduct additional exploration and production in Russia if Russia moved its troops beyond the borders of its control,” said David L. Goldwyn, a senior energy diplomat at the State Department. Under President Barack Obama.