Russia’s Oil Revenues Rise Despite Sanctions, Study Findings

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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered global condemnation and harsh sanctions aimed at crushing Moscow’s war chest. Still, revenue from fossil fuels, Russia’s largest export by far, rose to record highs in the first 100 days of its war against Ukraine, according to a new analysis.

Russia probably generated a record revenue of 93 billion euros from oil, gas and coal exports in the first 100 days of the country’s invasion of Ukraine. according to data It was analyzed by the Energy and Clean Air Research Center, a research organization based in Helsinki, Finland. About two-thirds of those earnings, or about $97 billion, came from oil and most of the rest from natural gas.

“The current rate of revenue is unprecedented because prices are unprecedented and export volumes are close to their record highs,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, an analyst who led the center’s research.

Fossil fuel exports have been an important facilitator of Russia’s military buildup. Revenue from oil and gas only in 2021 accounted for 45 percent According to the International Energy Agency, the federal budget of Russia. According to the research center’s estimation, revenue from Russia’s fossil fuel exports exceeds what the country spends on its war in Ukraine. momentum shifts While there is a shortage of weapons among Ukrainian soldiers, it is in Russia’s favor as its forces are focused on important regional targets.

Ukrainian authorities once again urged countries and firms to completely stop their trade with Russia. “We ask the world to do everything possible to cut off Putin and his war machine from all possible funding, but this is taking too long,” said Oleg Ustenko, economic adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Interview from Kiev.

Ukraine also monitors Russia’s exports, and Mr Ustenko said the research center’s figures appear to be on the conservative side. Yet the underlying finding was the same, he said: Fossil fuels continue to finance Russia’s war. “You can stop importing Russian caviar and Russian vodka, and that’s fine, but definitely not enough. “You have to stop importing Russian oil,” he said.

Although Russia’s fossil fuel exports began to decline somewhat in volume as more countries and companies avoided trading with Moscow, rising prices offset the effects of this decline. The research found that Russia’s export prices for fossil fuels are on average 60 percent higher than last year, even taking into account the fact that Russian oil has fallen about 30 percent below international market prices.

Europe in particular has struggled to give up Russian energy, even as many countries send military aid to Ukraine. The European Union has made the greatest progress in reducing its natural gas imports from Russia, purchasing 23 percent less in the first 100 days of occupation than in the same period the previous year. Still, the Energy and Clean Air Research Center found that revenue at Russia’s state-owned gas giant Gazprom remained nearly twice as high as in the previous year, thanks to higher gas prices.

The European Union also reduced Russian crude oil imports, which fell 18 percent in May. However, the research showed that this decline was made by India and the United Arab Emirates and did not result in a net change in Russia’s oil export volumes. India has become a major importer of Russian crude oil, buying 18 percent of the country’s exports in the 100-day period.

The United States has dealt a blow to Russia’s earnings by banning all Russian imports of fossil fuels. It still imports refined petroleum products from countries such as the United States, the Netherlands, and India, most likely Russian crude; this is a loophole for oil going from Russia to America.

Overall, China was Russia’s largest importer of fossil fuels in the 100-day period, surpassing Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. China imported the most oil; Japan was the largest buyer of Russian coal.

Stricter restrictions are coming. Late last month, the EU agreed to an embargo that would cover about three-quarters of Russian oil shipped to the region, but that will not be enforced for six months. The UK has said it will also phase out Russian oil imports by the end of the year. However, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, which receive Russian oil through pipelines, are exempted. European and US ships also continue to carry Russian oil.

Europe is also accelerating the process of getting rid of fossil fuels completely. A new EU target aims to increase the region’s share of electricity from renewable energy types to 63 percent by 2030, from the previously expected 55 percent target.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said last week that Washington was in talks with its European allies about forming a cartel that would put a cap on the price of Russian oil roughly equal to the price of production. This reduces Russia’s fossil fuel revenues, while at the same time allowing Russian oil to flow into global markets, stabilizing prices and warding off a global recession. told the Senate Finance Committee.

Mr Ustenko, Ukraine’s deputy economics officer, said he would welcome such a move as a temporary measure until full embargoes are implemented. He also suggested that countries take the difference between global prices and the capped price of Russian oil and pay them into a fund to help rebuild Ukraine.

“Then we will be able to cut the Russians off most of their finances and almost instantly,” he said.

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