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“If they don’t comply with the US, they’re in trouble with the US, but if they don’t comply with China, they may face penalties in China,” he said.

Of course, collecting fines from companies that don’t want to pay and monitoring whether businesses are following the rules can be difficult, Chorzempa added. “It’s already hard to track what’s already checked, and if you expand this list it will be a real challenge to verify what happened to Russia,” he said.

The Biden administration’s export controls apply to goods manufactured in any country as long as they use US technology, including chip manufacturers such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and Shanghai-based Semiconductor Manufacturing Industry Corporation.

Gabriel Wildau, general manager at Teneo, a consulting firm, said both of these companies continue to rely on the United States for certain components and manufacturing technology. If they continue to supply to Russia, SMIC and other Chinese companies could be cut from US tech, the same kind of punishment that crippled Huawei.

“If Beijing is seen as Moscow’s facilitator, there will be increased pressure in the US Congress to expand these restrictions,” Mr Wildau said in a note to his clients. Beijing will also risk other major tech exporters such as Japan, South Korea and the Netherlands “adopting Washington’s tougher streak.”

China’s state banks may also face risks of continuing to lend to Russia. China and Russia do most of their trade using the renminbi and ruble. Beijing is also seeking to develop the digital use of the currency as an alternative to the dollar, which could help Russia limit the impact of financial sanctions.

But Chinese banks are still deeply dependent on the US dollar. Mr Wildau said that while it appears that large Chinese banks are already withdrawing their financing to Russia, Beijing may choose to support Russia by using smaller state banks that do not do much international business that requires the use of dollars.