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According to regional experts, the increase in the number of military coups overthrowing democratic governments in Africa can be attributed to China’s growing regional and global influence. Strengthening democracy on the continent.

Seven coups and coup attempts in the past two years – the highest in more than four decades – have brought power-hungry military cliques to control resource-rich countries such as Chad, Mali, Sudan, Burkina Faso and Guinea, while failed coups have occurred in Guinea-Bissau and Niger. came.

Analysts point to a number of root causes, including ethnic and sectarian divisions in some countries, as well as corruption and mismanagement by civilian governments and weak or corrupt civilian institutions in countries where democracies struggle to hold on.

However, there is also the less publicized Sino-Russian factor. A push for influence and profit from the two authoritarian governments directly increased anti-democratic forces in a number of vulnerable African countries.

“China has created a permit structure for those plotting a coup in Africa because the conspirators know that Russia and China will work together to stop any sanctions that the United Nations Security Council might try to impose as punishment on the person who carried out the coup,” said Joseph Sany. Head of the Center for Africa at the United States Institute of Peace.

“China and Russia have veto power over the Security Council, so they helped create an environment of impunity and thus provided an opening for any potential putschists in these African countries,” Sany said. Washington Times in an interview.

To what extent such dynamics may or may not motivate coup planners to act, there is little question that both China and Russia have used their veto powers in the past to shield and blunt regimes that came to power through a coup d’etat. two years.

One of the more prominent examples concerned the military junta that seized power in Mali about two years ago. In late 2021, Beijing and Moscow blocked proposed UN sanctions against the junta after their leaders failed to fulfill their promise to hold elections and return Mali to civilian rule.

But it’s unclear whether China and Russia could benefit from maintaining the chaotic military government that holds control of the former French colony, which is home to unused gold, uranium and copper reserves but has been split in recent years by militant and Islamic extremist insurgency. .

Coups like the one in Mali in 2020 – the country’s second takeover of power in a decade – rarely provide the stability needed to use such resources in a way that can create economic stability, analysts say.

“In many cases… coups d’état further undermine stability because the military leaders who carry them out often fail to enact meaningful reforms, either because of a lack of experience in management or their desire to maintain power once they seize power,” says William A. Taylor. It was mentioned in an email that he wrote the 2018 book “Contemporary Security Issues in Africa”.

“Coups can result in political assassinations, ethno-religious violence and even civil wars,” said Mr Taylor, who teaches at Angelo State University in Texas. He also stressed that “the specific reasons for any coup are complex, particularly in Africa”.

“While each case is unique in circumstances, a common feature often stands out as the root cause – poor governance,” said Mr Taylor. “When state institutions fail, military coups can occur to challenge the existing regime. In this sense, the current increase in coups is a symptom of the widespread lack of viable democratic institutions.”

According to some experts, the rise in coups has swept the United States, and the former Trump administration’s often confrontational rhetoric on foreign policy has had little resonance in Africa, while the Biden administration has shown a nominal commitment to the plight of democracy. while offering little concrete assistance on the continent.

Is China behind?

Christopher Rhodes, an African expert who teaches at Harvard and Boston University, has argued that Washington’s failure to declare Egypt’s military coup contributed to a coup d’état following the 2011 Arab Spring protests, which overthrew a democratically elected Muslim Brotherhood-dominated government. The subsequent collapse of the post-Cold War “anti-coup consensus” in Africa.

“Like regional blocs like the African Union, locals have endorsed the end of the bargain,” Mr Rhodes said in an article published by Al Jazeera last year. “But the international environment has turned to an environment that, at best, allows for military takeovers, and at worst, actively welcomes them as viable means of eliminating threatening or obnoxious leaders.”

“The retreat of Western powers and the rise of autocratic-friendly China created an atmosphere that encouraged generals and military cliques to seize power,” Rhodes wrote. “It has led to the re-emergence of military interventions as a leading method of power transfer across the continent.

Foreign Minister Antony Blinken noted the trend in a key speech he delivered during a visit to Africa in November 2021, but focused most of his remarks on Africa’s potential as a rising global economic power.

“This is the continent of the young – energetic, innovative, hungry for jobs and opportunities,” said Mr. Blinken. “By 2025, more than half of the African population will be under the age of 25. By 2050, one in four people in the world will be African.”

“When fully implemented, the 54-nation African Continental Free Trade Area will form the world’s fifth largest economic bloc and represent a massive source of business, consumers, innovation and power to shape the global economy.” said the state.

However, it had little to announce new U.S. initiatives to promote democracy in Africa or to channel money into infrastructure investments that are the mainstay of China’s growing influence on the continent.

Beijing has given hundreds of billions of dollars in loans to infrastructure projects in African countries as part of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s “Belt and Road” financing initiative.

U.S. officials have criticized the Chinese program as “predatory”, as it seeks to burden the economically weaker countries with debts that can later be eased in exchange for the Chinese government’s access to natural resources and other forms of influence.

But Washington has struggled to offer concrete alternatives. The Trump administration has embarked on reforms that see the establishment of a new US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), backed by $60 billion to inspire private investment in developing countries around the world.

The Group of seven leading industrial nations – USA, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the UK – also separately announced the “Build a Better World” (B3W) initiative with the goal of inspiring investment.

‘A complex link’

Biden management often refers to B3W. Mr Blinken made this clear in his Africa speech last year. But we’ll see if the White House has the geopolitical capital to steer the initiative towards tangible results.

Mr Sany of the Peace Institute said that neither the Trump administration nor the Biden administration has done enough to encourage investment in Africa that could help democratic countries fend off blows by military juntas seeking credit and partnerships with autocratic powers like China and Russia.

“Unfortunately, we dropped the ball,” he told The Times, adding that while Washington has been active in military-military relations with African countries and has provided more aid to the continent than anyone else, overall US diplomatic and economic engagement has been delayed. Compared to what China has done in the last decade.

“There is a complex link between military engagement, diplomatic engagement, economic engagement and investment, where China is influential,” Mr. Sany said. “They have strong command and control, that’s the nature of the regime in China.”

China routinely tops the annual ranking of the continent’s largest foreign investors, and the impact for its money pays off, Phebe Wilson-Andoh wrote in a research paper last month for the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

“In 2020, nearly a third of infrastructure projects worth at least $50 million in Africa were built by Chinese companies. In addition, China is replacing the USA and Europe as trading partners with Africa in many areas.” “Beijing has turned China’s growing economic footprint in Africa into geopolitical influence.”

Africa, he added, “has rich economic opportunities for countries willing to put in the effort. With its talent for bilateral and multilateral diplomacy and a long history of building meaningful relationships with African states, China has replaced the United States and Europe in many places, at least in the minds of the leading elites of many African countries.”

In response, Mr. Sany said Washington is struggling to create the kind of inter-agency coordination needed to have a more positive impact on Africa, adding that the $60 billion DFC is a good start, but pales in comparison. Compared to the hundreds of billions of loans, grants and contracts distributed by Beijing.

“We need to leverage the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund,” he said, adding that the moment to compete with China in Africa is now, but that it “requires strategic vision and leadership – a coherent Africa policy from the United States.” ”

He stressed that the vote showed: “The African population still identifies with the values ​​that the United States upholds. [for]including the rule of law and transparency.”

“We’re wasting time,” he said, “but it’s not too late.”