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Most of this demand is expected to come from Asia. In particular, India’s purchases of Russian oil have increased by more than 700 percent in the five weeks since the start of the war in Ukraine, compared to the previous five weeks, according to data from the Russian Tanker Tracking Group.

Reid L’Anson, senior commodities economist at Kpler, said in an email that as shipments to Asia increase, Europe is showing a desire to cut purchases of Russian crude.

He said keeping track of oil tankers drifting at sea is important to begin to understand the new picture for Russian oil exports. While it’s not unusual to have some tankers with unknown destinations, he said, “following these flows will be critical, given the situation in Russia.” “I would be very interested to see how much Asia fills the gap left by purchasing from Europe,” he added.

Some of the West’s turn away from Russian oil came in the immediate aftermath of mounting public pressure.

When the Minerva Virgo, a 50,000-tonne Croatian-flagged tanker carrying Russian petrochemicals, docked in New York last week, environmental group Greenpeace held a protest in the port, with activists in rubber boats carrying banners that read “The War on Oil Fuels.” ”

(A few days later, a smaller tanker carrying Russian chemicals also headed for New York, Vinjerac changed its target to “Drifting” a short distance from shore and did not dock.)

In the UK, dockers at Birkenhead Dock in northwest England refused to unload a German-flagged tanker earlier this month. A local union leader said workers “under no circumstances will they dump Russian oil” told Sky News. The UK has banned Russian tankers from entering British ports, but the order does not apply to ships from other countries carrying Russian oil.

In response to the invasion, major oil companies said they were withdrawing from their investments in Russia. Companies such as BP, Shell, TotalEnergies and Exxon Mobil have said they will not sign new oil contracts with Russia.