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India’s Rising Omicron Wave Brings A Brutal Sense of Déjà Vu


NEW DELHI — When the Omicron coronavirus variant spread to India in late December, Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged the nation to stay vigilant and follow medical guidelines. Arvind Kejriwal, the prime minister of Delhi’s capital district, quickly imposed nighttime curfews, closed movie theaters and cut restaurants and public transport in half.

Subsequently, both men took to the campaign trail and often appeared unmasked at rallies full of thousands.

“When our bread and butter is at stake, they enforce restrictions and lockdowns,” said Ajay Tiwari, a 41-year-old taxi driver in New Delhi. “There are much larger crowds at political rallies, but they are not imposing any lockdown in these areas. It really saddens us. ”

As Omicron accelerated the rapid spread of new infections in India’s major urban centres, the country’s pandemic fatigue intensified with a sense of déjà vu and the disappointment of mixed signals.

It’s only been a few months since the deadly Delta variant devastated the country. government leaders greatly underestimated the threat and publicly disregarded their own advice. memories drowned hospitals and funeral pyres working around the clock still very fresh here.

The Mumbai metropolis on Wednesday reported more than 15,000 new infections in 24 hours – the highest daily caseload since the start of the pandemic, surpassing the city’s previous record of nearly 11,000 cases during the second wave in the spring. In New Delhi, the number of daily infections increased by nearly 100 percent overnight.

The size of India’s population of 1.4 billion has always kept experts wary of the possibility of a new coronavirus variant. In few parts of the world Delta’s toll was as sharp as in India. The country’s official figures show nearly half a million pandemic deaths — a number experts say greatly underestimates the real toll.

Omicron’s high contagiousness is causing cases to multiply dangerously fast and seems to ignore India’s main line of defense: a vaccination movement that covers about half the population. Initial studies show that the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, a locally produced version of which is used in about 90 percent of vaccines in India, does not protect against Omicron infections, although it appears to help reduce the severity of the disease.

Sitabhra Sinha, a professor of physics and computational biology at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai, said her research on the virus’s rate of reproduction — an indication of how quickly it spreads — has been called the “R-value” in major cities. It shows “insanely high” numbers for cities with good immunity, such as Delhi and Mumbai. Both have had multiple infections in the spring, and most adult populations have been vaccinated.

“Given this high R-value, incredibly large numbers are being looked at unless something is done to stop the spread,” he said.

But instead of drawing lessons from the fledgling response to the Delta wave that swept through India this spring, officials seem to be locking onto the optimism of early indications from places like South Africa, where the variant’s rapid spread has not done devastating damage. .

A professor of epidemiology at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, Dr. Anand Krishnan said that India’s declaration of the new variant as a “mild disease” led to complacency.

“The healthcare system has ceased to be indifferent. But the population is satisfied. “People don’t wear masks or change their behavior,” he said. “They think it’s a mild disease, and the restrictions being put in place are seen as too much of a nuisance.”

Scientists say any optimism about Omicron is premature because of how many people the variant could infect.

Dr. “Even if it’s a microscopic percentage that needs to be hospitalized,” Sinha said, “the truth is, the total population we’re talking about is huge.”

While the percentage of newly infected people admitted to hospitals has increased in recent days, data from India’s worst-affected cities (Mumbai, Delhi and Kolkata) showed that only a small number of Covid-designated beds have been used so far. Data Compiled by the Observer Research Foundation. It showed that about three percent of known active cases in Delhi and about 12 percent in Mumbai required hospitalization.

Until recently, the President of the Indian Medical Association, Dr. It’s not hospital beds or running out of oxygen that worries JA Jayalal – the capacity Indian authorities are trying to expand after the deadly shortages during the Delta wave – but the health system may face a severe shortage of healthcare workers.

Dr. Jayalal said that about 1800 Indian doctors are known to have died from Covid-19 since the pandemic began. Healthcare workers struggling pandemic fatigue. Tens of thousands of doctors just took a break strike protesting overwork and the delay in hiring new doctors. Local media reports show that hundreds of doctors and health workers have tested positive in recent days.

“Many positive cases have been reported in our medical fraternity. That means they won’t be available for work,” Dr. Jayalal said.

As with the delta wave, Omicron is spreading in India at a time of high public activity – heavy holiday travel and major election rallies in several states that will go to the polls in the coming months.

Prime Minister Modi and his deputies are holding large rallies in Uttar Pradesh, a population of 200 million led by an up-and-coming Modi protégé.

Mr. Kejriwal, Delhi’s prime minister and a prominent opposition leader, was also a ubiquitous figure at the rallies. It is trying to grow its small party in several states preparing for elections this year. He continued to campaign in these states even as he put Delhi under restrictions.

The day after a big rally in Uttarakhand state where Mr. Kejriwal took the stage without a mask, he had some bad news he wanted to share on Twitter.

“I tested positive for Covid,” he said. “Anyone who has contacted me in the past few days, please isolate.”

Hours later, his party’s Facebook page gave new directions to Delhi residents with a poster featuring Mr Kejriwal’s picture.

“The war against Corona continues,” he said. “INCREDIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN Delhi.”

Hari Kumar contributing reporting.



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