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Seoul, South Korea — Is North Korea poised to deploy tactical nuclear weapons along its tense border with rival South Korea, only a short drive from the 26 million people living in and around its capital, Seoul?
That’s what it looks like to many experts who paid close attention to a high-profile North Korean military meeting this week. The possible deployment would be a significant improvement in the decades-long standoff on the Korean Peninsula, just two months after leader Kim Jong Un’s implicit threat to use nuclear weapons preemptively.
North Korea already has thousands of conventional weapons targeting South Korea and about 30,000 US forces stationed there, but bringing its short-range nuclear missiles to the border would be the clearest sign that Kim wants to use his nuclear weapons to threaten both. Obtaining concessions from South Korea and outside nuclear negotiators.
With North Korea’s obvious preparations for its first nuclear test in five years, there is a deep suspicion among observers that diplomacy can persuade the country to abandon its nuclear bombs. Critics urge Seoul and Washington to formulate a new approach to dealing with North Korea’s rapidly developing nuclear program.
Here’s a look at Kim’s latest nuclear moves.
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PHOTOS: EXPLANATOR: Is North Korea carrying a nuclear bomb across its borders?
NUCLEAR WEAPONS ON THE BORDER?
At the military meeting that ended on Thursday, Kim and other senior officials confirmed additional “operational missions” and “modified operational plans” for troops near the South Korean border.
State media posts did not directly mention nuclear weapons. But outside experts believe that North Korea’s vague language signals its intention to deploy tactical nuclear weapons systems forward. They base their assessment in part on recent public comments from North Korea about such plans and a series of short-range nuclear-capable missile tests designed to attack strategic facilities in South Korea, including US military bases.
A big clue came in April when North Korea tested a newly developed guided weapon that it said would improve the efficient operation of “tactical nuclear missiles” and increase the firepower of front-line artillery units. Later that month, Kim said he could use his nuclear program as a preventative if provoked.
If a war breaks out on the Korean Peninsula, North Korea now has a “much better chance of using its tactical nuclear weapons on a battlefield”, said Kim Yeol Soo, an expert at the South Korean Institute of Military Affairs.
The weapons likely to be deployed on the border are some of the more mobile, solid-fuel, short-range missiles that North Korea has tested since its nuclear diplomacy with the United States collapsed in 2019. foreign experts say they could potentially evade South Korean and US missile defense systems – “tactical” weapons, implying the intention to equip them with lower-yield nuclear weapons.
Kim Taewoo, the former head of the state-funded Korea National Unification Institute in Seoul, said that North Korea has probably already acquired the technology to equip its missiles with nuclear warheads, so tactical nuclear weapon deployment could happen at any time.
However, some experts said that North Korea may not deploy nuclear-armed missiles due to potential problems.
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WILL SOUTH KOREA RESPONSE BY SPREADING NUCLEAR WEAPONS?
North Korea’s blatant pressure to deploy tactical nuclear weapons may be part of Kim’s oath to oppose the US’s “force to be strong” amid stalled nuclear diplomacy. It also comes as Washington and Seoul seek to strengthen their combined defense capabilities to deal with the North Korean nuclear threats.
South Korea’s neoconservative government, which took office last month, said it would expand its conventional weapons capabilities and strengthen its defenses with the United States.
While the Koreans have avoided major conflicts since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War, there have been deadly clashes and attacks that have left dozens dead in recent years.
North Korea has a history of increasing threats and provocations when a new government takes office in South Korea or the United States to create a potentially favorable environment for future negotiations. The country then often reduced its rhetoric and launched glamor attacks.
This time it might be like that.
But front-line nuclear weapons will complicate how South Korea will respond to any future North Korean provocation.
During his summit with US President Joe Biden last month, new South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol secured US commitment to the regional deployment of US strategic assets, such as long-range bombers and aircraft carriers, in response to North Korean provocations.
The Allies may also hold their largest combined military training session in years in August.
However, Yoon said he would not continue nuclear development or ask the United States to redeploy nuclear weapons in South Korea as a deterrent to potential North Korean aggression.
The South Korean military said it was closely monitoring North Korea’s activities on possible moves to deploy tactical nuclear weapons, but did not provide details.
Some experts say North Korea’s expansion of tactical nuclear weapons and its pursuit of long-range missiles capable of reaching the US mainland have undermined the credibility of America’s “nuclear umbrella,” but the Biden administration has repeatedly reaffirmed the US commitment to defend South Korea with its nuclear weapons. full range of military capabilities.
There are also calls for the reuse of US nuclear weapons in South Korea.
“We must move on to a strategy of ending North Korea’s nuclear threats through a nuclear balance,” said Kim Taewoo, former head of the Korea National Unification Institute. “Deployment of tactical nuclear weapons means that the nuclear threat from North Korea will be right in front of us.”
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WHAT’S NEXT?
Tactical nuclear weapons were part of Kim Jong Un’s five-year weapons development plan announced last year. It has stepped up its ballistic missile tests to an unprecedented pace this year to boost his country’s ability to attack both the US mainland and South Korea.
For weeks, US and South Korean officials have noted signs that a nuclear test by North Korea is imminent, the first since 2017 and the seventh overall. Such a test could be part of an attempt to build a warhead that could fit tactical missiles or multi-warhead missiles.
But North Korea has yet to perform such testing, possibly due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and opposition from its last major ally and largest aid provider, China.
North Korea has so far rejected the Biden administration’s offers of open-ended negotiations, urging Washington to abandon its “hostile policy”, a term primarily referring to US-led economic sanctions and joint US-South Korean military exercises.
Experts say it’s only a matter of time before North Korea conducts a nuclear test, seen as an important step in expanding its nuclear arsenal as part of Kim’s five-year plan. Such a test would likely complicate the effort to restart nuclear diplomacy.
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