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A major United Nations climate summit in Glasgow kicks off this weekend, and a series of new studies have been conducted to examine how much progress the world has actually made in the fight against climate change. And these data offer both hope and cause for alarm.
There is some good news, as I explained with my colleague Nadja Popovich. in this last article: Over the last decade, the nations of the world have begun to slowly bend the future emissions curve downward, thanks to the rapid rise of clean energy.
But the bad news is that these efforts are still not enough to avoid a dangerous rise in global temperatures in the coming years. And it will take a tremendous effort by governments and businesses to change course.
Numbers: According to Climate Action Tracker data, in 2014 the world was at a global warming rate of about 4 degrees Celsius, or about 7 degrees Fahrenheit. Things are slowly improving: current policies are now putting the world on track at just under 3 degrees C, and some of countries’ most ambitious promises to zero their emissions could keep us at around 2 degrees C.
Catch: This assumes that nations will truly follow through on promises of high climates that are far from secure. And scientists are increasingly saying that even 2 degrees Celsius is too risky and we should aim for a lower limit of 1.5 degrees. (The Earth has already warmed 1 degree Celsius since pre-industrial times.)
quotation: “The road is extremely narrow,” said Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency. “We really don’t have much time to change course.”
Speaking of Glasgow, you can join us there.
As world leaders meet at COP26, The Times will host the Climate Centre, a forum featuring Greta Thunberg, Al Gore and others. You can attend either face-to-face or online. Tickets are available here. (Climate Fwd: newsletter subscribers can use code CF-50 to save 50 percent on in-person events.)
Warming poses an expanding security threat
The Biden administration released several reports on climate change and national security last week, laying out in solid terms the ways in which our warming planet is beginning to significantly challenge stability around the world. The reports mark a new phase in US policy that has placed climate change at the center of the nation’s security planning.
Among the highlights:
From bad to worse in the Middle East and North Africa: Countries like Iraq and Algeria could be affected by the loss of income from fossil fuels, even as their regions face worsening heat and drought.
More problems close to home: Intelligence agencies identified 11 countries particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, including four countries close to the United States, including Guatemala and Haiti.
You can do read full article here.
Relating to: Climate change exposures An ’emerging threat’ to the global financial system.
Looking ahead: Oil executives will testify about disinformation
The heads of Exxon Mobil, Shell, Chevron and BP will be on Capitol Hill on Thursday and here industry’s efforts to curb action against climate change.
La Niña will likely prolong drought in the West
Everything starts again in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean: The climate pattern known as La Niña has evolved for the second year in a row as sea surface temperatures drop below normal.
Like its counterpart, El Niño, La Niña causes changes in the jet stream, displacing these high-altitude winds. This can affect the weather in some parts of the world. In the United States, La Niña generally means warmer and drier conditions in the South.
Warmer and drier – sounds familiar, right? Much of the West and Southwest was hotter and drier for months, even years, while in the grip of severe drought. Mistake heavy rains What hit California this week has barely improved the situation in this state.
Given the development of La Niña, forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration late last week published his comments for the winterand unsurprisingly, they expect the drought to continue and even spread to some areas in the Southern Plains. However, they took care to point out that La Niña sometimes surprises by not producing the expected effects.
The good thing is: La Niña also brings generally wetter conditions to the Pacific Northwest. NOAA forecasters said that if that were true, the drought in that area should recover and end in some coastal areas altogether.
Also important this week:
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After that losing the center of the climate agendaPresident Biden drafted a Plan B: tax credits, regulation and government action.
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global warming poses serious dangers around the world, but for a small Russian town in the Arctic Ocean welfare ticket.
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aspect climate change risks are increasinglooking for investors greener buildings.
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coal mining stocks they produce surprising returns, even as the planet warms.
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Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, a climate scientist who pioneers ways to help the public see the impact of climate change on extreme weather disasters, died aged 59.
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Diane Weyermann, a manager advocating an “Inconvenient Truth” died at the age of 66.
And finally:
‘Long live king coal’ in Australia
Just days away from an important United Nations climate conference, Australia this week pledged to reach net zero emissions by 2050. However, the plan mostly based on hope and emerging technologies, which greatly disappointed analysts.
“This is an update of the marketing materials the federal government uses to claim it’s doing something when it’s not really doing anything new,” said Richie Merzian, director of climate and energy at the Australian Institute, a research organization. “It’s kind of ridiculous.”
The announcement did not include a toughening of emissions targets for 2030 – something scientists say will be needed from world leaders at the climate summit that begins this weekend in Glasgow.
Australia’s audacious inaction is already affecting the country’s image. as i wrote in a news analysisAt a time when coal is treated more like tobacco, seen as a danger wherever it is burned, Australia is increasingly looking like the man who sells cheap cigarettes at the end of the bar and promises to bring more tomorrow.
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