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China formalized the words its leader made last year, but the country did not go further. Official update of targets to combat climate changeIt was submitted to the United Nations climate change agency on Thursday.
harbinger of a bad start International climate talks in Glasgow Next week, given that China’s emissions now have the largest share in the world. It reflects the political and economic challenges in China in moving away from fossil fuels. China burns more coal than any other country combined to power its factories and produce the massive amounts of steel and cement used in construction projects.
So what China is doing from today to 2030 is crucial to global efforts to slow catastrophic climate change.
Called the Updated Nationally Determined Contribution, or NDC, this document commits to four main things that Chinese leader Xi Jinping outlined nearly a year ago: China will peak its emissions of carbon dioxide, a key planet-warming greenhouse gas produced by China. Combustion of oil, gas and coal before 2030; it will also reduce the carbon emission intensity of its economy by 65 percent compared to 2005 levels; will enable renewable energy sources to make up a quarter of the energy mix; and increase forest cover.
None of this is new. All announced by Mr. Xi in December 2020, and they fall far behind what many climate advocates in and outside of China had hoped.
“It’s not getting the ball far enough,” John Kerry, the United States climate ambassador, said Thursday morning.
The latest scientific research says global greenhouse gas emissions must be nearly halved by 2030, or keep global average temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century compared to the beginning of the industrial age, to avoid the worst consequences of climate change. . The world has already seen an average temperature rise of 1 degree Celsius.
The United States has cumulatively produced the largest share of global emissions since the dawn of the industrial age. China currently produces the largest share of global emissions.
Li Shuo, policy adviser to Greenpeace China, said Beijing “missed an opportunity to show ambition”.
“China’s decision casts a shadow over global climate efforts,” Mr. Li said. “The planet can’t handle this being the last word. Beijing needs to come up with stronger implementation plans to achieve an emissions peak before 2025.”
Bernice Lee, a China expert at London think-tank Chatham House, described China’s plans as part of a “broad disturbance” among major economies that were unable to immediately reduce emissions, as scientific consensus requires. “We can’t sugarcoat this: Beijing’s new climate plan is disappointing,” he said. “China has lowered its target and missed its chance to be recognized as a global leader.”
China has taken many steps over the past five years to slow its growth in greenhouse gas emissions. But the country’s efforts ran into trouble this fall.
Demand for electricity continued to grow strongly as China has a larger share of the global market for manufactured goods. Widespread blackouts and even blackouts that began last month have led to increased coal use. This month, the government said it will increase its production capacity by 220 million mt of coal per year, for a roughly 6 percent increase in output.
“As industrialization and urbanization continue, energy demand will continue to rise, although it is unlikely to fundamentally change the coal-dominated energy mix in the short term,” writes China’s presentation to the United Nations climate agency.
Even after consolidating his immense personal power, Mr. Xi still faces political and economic constraints. The entire Chinese economy is slowing under the weight of debt that has accumulated rapidly since the global financial crisis of 2008 and 2009. Manufacturing, especially for export markets, has been the strongest area of the Chinese economy. But factories also consume 70 percent of China’s electricity, making them obvious targets for rationing and higher prices during recent power outages.
Keith Bradsher contributed to the reporting.
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